NM-Sen: Baseline poll
Thu Nov 08, 2007 at 09:38:40 AM PDT
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Marty Chavez, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
Wilson (R) 45
Chavez (D) 42
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Diane Denish, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
Wilson (R) 44
Denish (D) 43
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Udall, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
Wilson (R) 38
Udall (D) 55
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If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Marty Chavez, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
Pearce (R) 40
Chavez (D) 39
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Diane Denish, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
Pearce (R) 39
Denish (D) 45
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Udall, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
Pearce (R) 37
Udall (D) 54
Run, Udall, Run!
Full crosstabs below the fold.
Race tracker wiki: NM-Sen
NEW MEXICO POLL RESULTS - NOVEMBER 2007
The Research 2000 New Mexico Poll was conducted from November 5 through November 7, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 289 (48%)
Women 311 (52%)
Democrats 246 (41%)
Republicans 186 (31%)
Independents/Other 168 (28%)
18-29 95 (16%)
30-44 175 (29%)
45-59 203 (34%)
60+ 127 (21%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Heather Wilson? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 34% 26% 8% 20%
MEN 13% 37% 24% 8% 18%
WOMEN 11% 31% 28% 8% 22%
DEMOCRATS 8% 28% 35% 12% 17%
REPUBLICANS 19% 45% 13% 4% 19%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 32% 27% 7% 23%
18-29 9% 30% 30% 11% 20%
30-44 15% 37% 22% 5% 21%
45-59 14% 36% 24% 6% 20%
60+ 10% 32% 28% 9% 21%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Steve Pearce? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9% 33% 28% 7% 23%
MEN 11% 37% 25% 6% 21%
WOMEN 7% 29% 31% 8% 25%
DEMOCRATS 5% 27% 37% 11% 20%
REPUBLICANS 17% 45% 14% 3% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 7% 30% 30% 6% 27%
18-29 6% 29% 31% 9% 25%
30-44 12% 37% 25% 5% 21%
45-59 10% 35% 27% 5% 23%
60+ 7% 32% 29% 8% 24%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Marty Chavez? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 31% 25% 7% 26%
MEN 9% 29% 29% 8% 25%
WOMEN 13% 33% 21% 6% 27%
DEMOCRATS 17% 38% 15% 3% 27%
REPUBLICANS 4% 23% 37% 11% 25%
INDEPENDENTS 11% 30% 26% 7% 26%
18-29 15% 36% 19% 4% 26%
30-44 8% 27% 29% 10% 26%
45-59 9% 29% 28% 9% 25%
60+ 11% 32% 24% 6% 27%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Diane Denish? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 34% 19% 4% 33%
MEN 9% 31% 22% 6% 32%
WOMEN 11% 37% 16% 2% 34%
DEMOCRATS 14% 43% 11% 1% 31%
REPUBLICANS 5% 25% 29% 7% 34%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 32% 20% 4% 34%
18-29 13% 38% 14% 2% 33%
30-44 7% 31% 22% 6% 34%
45-59 8% 32% 21% 4% 35%
60+ 12% 35% 19% 4% 30%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Udall? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 15% 36% 21% 7% 21%
MEN 14% 35% 23% 8% 20%
WOMEN 16% 37% 19% 6% 22%
DEMOCRATS 23% 44% 12% 3% 18%
REPUBLICANS 6% 26% 34% 12% 22%
INDEPENDENTS 14% 36% 19% 6% 25%
18-29 18% 39% 16% 4% 23%
30-44 12% 33% 25% 9% 21%
45-59 14% 35% 23% 7% 21%
60+ 17% 37% 19% 7% 20%
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QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Marty Chavez, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
WILSON CHAVEZ UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 42% 13%
MEN 49% 39% 12%
WOMEN 41% 45% 14%
DEMOCRATS 14% 70% 16%
REPUBLICANS 83% 6% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 41% 12%
18-29 40% 48% 12%
30-44 49% 37% 14%
45-59 47% 39% 14%
60+ 44% 44% 12%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Diane Denish, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
WILSON DENISH UNDECIDED
ALL 44% 43% 13%
MEN 48% 40% 12%
WOMEN 40% 46% 14%
DEMOCRATS 13% 72% 15%
REPUBLICANS 82% 7% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 41% 13%
18-29 40% 47% 13%
30-44 48% 38% 14%
45-59 46% 40% 14%
60+ 43% 45% 12%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Udall, the Democrat, and Heather Wilson, the Republican?
UDALL WILSON UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 38% 7%
MEN 52% 43% 5%
WOMEN 58% 33% 9%
DEMOCRATS 80% 10% 10%
REPUBLICANS 19% 79% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 35% 8%
18-29 58% 35% 7%
30-44 52% 43% 5%
45-59 53% 39% 8%
60+ 56% 36% 8%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Marty Chavez, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
PEARCE CHAVEZ UNDECIDED
ALL 40% 39% 21%
MEN 45% 36% 19%
WOMEN 35% 42% 23%
DEMOCRATS 11% 65% 24%
REPUBLICANS 80% 6% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 37% 37% 26%
18-29 36% 42% 22%
30-44 43% 36% 21%
45-59 42% 38% 20%
60+ 39% 40% 21%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Diane Denish, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
DENISH PEARCE UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 39% 16%
MEN 40% 45% 15%
WOMEN 50% 33% 17%
DEMOCRATS 74% 11% 15%
REPUBLICANS 8% 79% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 36% 20%
18-29 48% 36% 16%
30-44 41% 43% 16%
45-59 43% 40% 17%
60+ 46% 38% 16%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Udall, the Democrat, and Steve Pearce, the Republican?
UDALL PEARCE UNDECIDED
ALL 54% 37% 9%
MEN 50% 42% 8%
WOMEN 58% 32% 10%
DEMOCRATS 80% 10% 10%
REPUBLICANS 19% 78% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 55% 32% 13%
18-29 57% 34% 9%
30-44 51% 40% 9%
45-59 52% 39% 9%
60+ 55% 35% 10%
