With exception of the
CBSNEWS Poll, all polling this week shows a very close race within the margin of error...
POLLING DATA RELEASED THIS WEEK
BUSH-KERRY-NADER
CBSNEWS: BUSH +8
FOXNEWS: BUSH +4
NBC/WSJ: BUSH +3
DEMCORPS: BUSH +2
ZOGBY: BUSH +3
ARG: BUSH +1
ECONOMIST: KERRY +1
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AVERAGE: BUSH +2.86
(If I take out the highest (CBS +8) & the lowest (ECONOMIST -1), the average is Bush +2.6. In the best case scenario for Bush, leave CBS in & take out the ECONOMIST = Bush +3.5.)
So everything points to Bush having around a 3 point lead at this moment. How does that compare to close elections in the past? Using the past Gallup polling data...
There are many similarities between 1980 & this election. An incumbent President with a foreign policy problem & a weak economic record. With all of those problems, Carter had a 4 point lead in September, & would expand it to an 8 point lead in October, but go on to lose in November.
Gore who would go on to a victory in the popular vote, would be down by 8 points in September, & 13 points in October.
Update [2004-9-23 23:23:22 by Rimjob]:
FROM THE WASHINGTON POST:
...Aides to John F. Kerry are suggesting that the Massachusetts senator has turned a corner with newly aggressive attacks on Bush's Iraq policies. It may be too early to declare that he has, but Kerry appeared more confident on the campaign trail this week in framing his differences with Bush on Iraq, and some Democrats believe he has weathered what could have become a decisive moment in the presidential contest.
"Ten days ago, we were at a huge fork in the road," said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. "This could have become 1988 [when Bush's father took control over Michael S. Dukakis shortly after Labor Day] and was a real moment of danger for the Kerry campaign. In a lot of ways, he's survived it and we're back to a very competitive race again."
Just how competitive is an open question, for while Kerry may have put himself in a stronger position to litigate Iraq with Bush in their upcoming debates, he carries scars from months of attacks that may be difficult to overcome, given the limited amount of time left.
Bush's advisers argue that the president enjoys a small, but solid, lead and that negative impressions of Kerry complicate his hopes of turning the race decisively in his direction. Democrats outside the Kerry campaign agree that the challenger still has considerable work to do...