I've noticed in surfing several Democratic-leaning blogs how a lot of people still seem pessimistic about John Kerry's chances to be elected President. If Craig Kilbourne can have 5 questions, and ESPN's "Pardon the Interruption" can have "5 Good Minutes," I thought I would provide 5 Favorable Trends for Kerry (for those whose spirits need a little lifting).
1. Recent general election national polls showing a range from essentially tied to Kerry up by several points.
http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
One exception to that is the Gallup polls, which are well-known for erratic fluctuations in the proportions of Democrats and Republicans sampled. See my earlier diary entry on that, entitled "An Open Letter to Gallup," at:
http://profalan.dailykos.com
2. Kerry's superb fundraising
http://johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0402.html
3. Stronger than usual (if not unprecedented) Democratic unity. Notwithstanding the early intraparty attacks on Dean (the most barbed of which from Lieberman), the final several weeks of the primaries where very positive and harmonious. Dean seems to be on board in supporting Kerry, as are other prominent Democrats.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/03/25/election.main/
- Bush's long streak of laying eggs, from the prescription drug bill's seemingly full backlash, to the proposed Mars mission, to one of the only (if not the only) State of the Union addresses not to raise a President's approval rating, to the Meet the Press appearance, to having to be pulled kicking and screaming into complying with the 9/11 Commission's requests (including the extra embarrassment of choosing to appear with Cheney present), etc.
- Nader fading to as low as 2 percent in one recent poll (which itself may well overstate how he actually does).
By no means am I overconfident about Kerry's prospects; I just think the gloom is unwarranted.