and the importance is how badly Bush does. Kerry, btw, does well with independents, especially against junior... the Veteran's effect, maybe?
link
Kerry 45% Bush 44%
Election 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush 44%
Kerry 45%
Other 6%
Not Sure 6%
Election 2004 Presidential Ballot
Bush 42%
Democrat 49%
Other 3%
Not Sure 6%
January 30, 2004--Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has taken a one-point lead over President George W. Bush in the latest Rasmussen Reports tracking survey of 1,500 Likely Voters. On the Friday morning after New Hampshire, the Democrat's front runner attracts support from 45% of the nation's voters while the President earns 44% support.
At the same time, things have not gone as well for the President. Just before Iowa, Bush introduced an immigration proposal that was not well received. His State-of-the-Union address was overshadowed by the Democratic nominating process, and confidence in the economy has been declining.
In a match between President Bush and a generic Democrat, the Democrat now leads 49% to 42%.
it's just a snapshot, but you have to love the downward trend for junior.
See below for ARG data (link from Polling Report).
American Research Group Poll. Jan. 27-29, 2004. N=768 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5 (total sample).
"If the election for president were being held today between George W. Bush, the Republican, and the Democratic nominee for president, for whom would you vote: Bush or the Democratic nominee?" Options rotated
George W. Bush Democrat Unsure
% % %
ALL 47 46 7
Republicans 88 2 10
Democrats 9 85 6
Independents 46 49 5
"What if the election for president were being held between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?" Names rotated
George W. Bush John Kerry Unsure
% % %
ALL 46 47 7
Republicans 89 3 8
Democrats 12 81 7
Independents 39 55 6
George W. Bush John Kerry Unsure
Ind. 39 55 6
George W. Bush Generic Unsure
Ind. 46 49 5
Note also that it is usual for the generic to beat a real person, since every candidates' voters dislikes someone else (no one dislikes each other as much as Lieberman and Dean voters, btw).