Because I may be the only person who comes to kos daily who also is a big Nascar fan, I am sure that very few of you watched the exciting finish today at Talladega. But needless to say, Dale Jarrett's win got us gearheads a bit excited, and I decided to come on here and express me happiness through a journal that likely no one will read. So here we go....
Now the last time I posted, it was to once again defend Judge (now Justice) Roberts to my fellow progressives. That went over like a lead balloon. But now I come with a journal that I am sure many of you will agree with. Because of my experience the last few years, I know a bit about the various Sup Ct nominee candidates. So I thought I would give those who have actual lives and dont follow this like I do, my own little personal rundown:
To start off with, I am leaving out all white males. While Bush may end up going that route, I certainly doubt it. There is no excuse for the Sup Ct to only have one woman and minority....and the comments in recent weeks from the President, his wife, O'Connor, etc suggest to me that white males are off the table. Thus, as I see it, the top 10 candidates (in no particular order):
- Edith Jones ---- Now if the right wing Christians had their way, there is no doubt that this would be the nominee. Likely the most conservative judge currently on the federal appellate bench, Jones provides a killer pedigree for those who love Bush. She is a textualist, originalist and (unlike many who share these beliefs) a true believer that religion can and should play a role in these decisions. In my opinion, for progressives there could be no worse nominee. She will side with Scalia and Thomas on virtually all issues that progressives care about and when they disagree (say on the 4th Amendment or in the case of Scalia, the enemy combatant cases), she will forget her principles and go for the conservative outcome. A scary prospect and one that I think legitimately could be voted down.
- Maura Corrigan ---- Chief Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court and someone that I think truly is an outside candidate. A woman who by all accounts, has a strong intellectual pedigree, but also is strongly involved in the pro-life movements. Another of the religious conservatives, she has shown herself to be a bit less to the right on criminal issues, but would be a reliable conservative vote on all the big issues. In my opinion, she may be the Judge most like Roberts in terms of making the Right happy and being relatively easily confirmable.
- Karen Williams ---- A sweet woman whose name being in the Supreme Court mix absolutely shocks me. Williams has been a long-time member of the 4th Circuit and has very little in the way of accolades to back her time there. She is a conservative of the rightest ilk and would likely vote in lock step with all of the conservative majority. I struggle to see her holding up to questioning by the Senate Judiciary and her nomination would be virtually unsupportable by anyone who believed that pedigree and intellectual superioirity should follow the nominees.
- Larry Thompson --- Possibly the most interesting person on the list, Thompson truly is an unknown when it comes to what his judicial philosophy would be. He is currently the legal counsel for Pepsi, but his pedigree comes from his time in the Justice Department and his work post-911. There is no doubt that he stands with the administration on the war on terror and is pro-government on criminal issues. But his social beliefs and constitutional values are unknown. From conservative friends of mine, this is the one they are worried about. Most likely to become Souter from the minority male candidates.
- Samuel Alito ---- 1st Circuit judge who they dont call "Scalito" for nothing. A true dogmatic conservative who would immediately join Thomas and Scalia to form a strong conservative block on all issues. I am surprised that the media does not focus more on Scalito as he is truly, in my opinion, the perfect nominee for Bush. VERY conservative, a Hispanic and, due to his intellectual pedigree and personal demeanor, likely to be confirmed. If the Bush people are smart and decide they can go without appointing a woman, this would be the pick.
- Harriet Miers ---- A woman that no one in America knew until last week, Miers is a former personal attorney to President Bush. She is a bit of a trailblazer in Texas law, becoming one of the first women to make partner in a big Texas firm and becoming the first female President of the Texas Bar Association. Now White House Counsel, she is in charge of the picking of nominees and like Cheney before her, may decide that she is the best to offer. Would truly open the President to more criticism for cronyism, but her judicial philosophy is literally, unknown.
- Edith Clement --- The presumed nominee the last time, Clement is considered unlikely due to the threatened Conservative uprising when she was considered last time. Many believe that Clement, along with Luttig and Roberts was in the final 3 last time and I think that certainly makes her a contender again. Clement is considered a personal woman from the 5th Circuit who is the more moderate of the Ediths down there. She has, for the majority of her career, not taken on any "activist" causes, thus giving no real storm around her like her colleague Edith Jones. Opinions on her truly vary. Many say she is extremely bright, while others say she is simply a conservative follower. Some believe she could be the next O Connor, while others think she is a wolf in sheep's clothing and is a Federalist through and through. The answer likely lies in the middle. If the President wants a great story (woman from New Orleans, husband with an amazing personal story and easily confirmable), he will pick her. If he wants to make the conservative religious base happy, he wont.
- Alice Batchelder --- A name that popped up a bit last week, this 6th Circuit judge is well respected for her intellect and is a reliable conservative. On a circuit which is likely the most volatile of any in America, Batchelder has shown herself to be a conservative vote, but one that is not polarizing. Unlike Danny Boggs (another name mentioned recently but a white male), Batchelder has not shown a desire to be placed in an ideological box. Opposing her would be very difficult for the Dems because there is no "smoking gun" to criticize her with. Having said that, with a wink and a nod, the conservative base would be very happy and she could very easily turn out to be more conservative than Roberts.
- Alberto Gonzalez ---- the choice of the Washington media due to the likelihood of a great story, the Attorney General is an interesting guy. Strong on presidential authority and government power, Gonzalez is liberal on social issues, becoming a key voice on the administration's position in the affirmative action case. One of the loudest critics of the conservative activism while in Texas, Gonzalez could really cause the pot to stir. Religious conservatives will be furious. Some liberals will be unable to look past the torture memo to see possibly the best nominee for liberal causes available under this Presidency. It is possible there could be nay votes from both the right and the left. Personally I have had many interactions with Gonzalez and find him to be a rare bird in this administration....a man who can take criticism and actually considers counter points of view....revolutionary.
- Consuelo Callahan ---- Finally, the woman who I think will be the pick, based solely on guess work. From the 9th Circuit, Callahan is a dream Bush politician pick, a Hispanic woman who has a conservative pedigree but is not an ideologue. Therein lies her problem. Conservatives dont trust this pick and are worried that her "stealth" status means she could "grow on the court" and become a liberal down the road. I would not however get excited at this possibility as her work on the 9th Circuit has shown no tendency in this direction. I think she fills all that the President needs (woman, Hispanic, conservative, confirmable) and would be my guess for his pick.
All this is to say however, that no one really knows. I have left out Janice Rogers Brown and Pricilla Owen, conservative dream picks, but unlikely due to their probability in causing a Civil War in the Senate. If either are picked, it will show that the President truly does not care about bringing anything together and is simply out to reshape the court in a Conservative manner for the future.
I also left out Republicans that the President should consider such as the wonderful Allyson Duncan from the 4th Circuit, Ann Williams from the 7th, Sonia Sotamayor from the 2nd, etc because there is no way the President would be smart enough to recognize their true talent and ability to unify the country. There you go, take all of that for what it is worth, but it was a good way to spend a few minutes.....