Contrary to the news media's guiding narrative that "Bush is a popular incumbent and will therefore be re-elected," there is increasing evidence to the contrary. The latest poll from South Carolina shows that Bush would beat the generic Democrat by a mere two points, 45 to 43%, which is within the poll's margin of error. If Bush can only barely win in one of the three or four most conservative states in the country, imagine what we can to do him come November in the rust belt, Florida, the southwest, and the border states of the south (West Virginia, Kentucky, etc).
Here's the poll :
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/30/opinion/polls/main597064.shtml