Supplemental Bill's Chances Rise As Antiwarriors Release their Caucus

It will still be very close when the roll is called, but at least some members of the Out of Iraq Caucus are now on board with the House leadership on the emergency supplemental appropriations bill, according to The Washington Post today:

Liberal opposition to a $124 billion war spending bill broke last night, when leaders of the antiwar Out of Iraq Caucus pledged to Democratic leaders that they will not block the measure, which sets timelines for bringing U.S. troops home.

The acquiescence of the liberals probably means that the House will pass a binding measure today that, for the first time, would establish tough readiness standards for the deployment of combat forces and an Aug. 31, 2008, deadline for their removal from Iraq.

A Senate committee also passed a spending bill yesterday setting a goal of bringing troops home within a year. The developments mark congressional Democrats' first real progress in putting legislative pressure on President Bush to withdraw U.S. forces.

Even more than the conservative Democrats leery of appearing to micromanage the war, House liberals have been the main obstacle to leadership efforts to put a timeline on the withdrawal of U.S. forces. They have complained that the proposal would not bring troops home fast enough. Their opposition has riven the antiwar movement, split the Democratic base and been the main stumbling block to the legislation, which had originally been scheduled for a vote yesterday.

It wasn’t only those who had been wavering from the beginning:

"I find myself in the excruciating position of being asked to choose between voting for funding for the war or establishing timelines to end it," said Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.). "I have struggled with this decision, but I finally decided that, while I cannot betray my conscience, I cannot stand in the way of passing a measure that puts a concrete end date on this unnecessary war."

That was the message of Democratic leaders: This is the best deal they could make, and it is better than no deal at all.

As could be seen here yesterday on the Daily Kos Front Page, in the Diaries and across wwwLand, the debate over the supplemental has generated considerable dissent among people who are usually strong allies. Well-known bloggers who might normally be expected to come down on one side surprised readers by coming down on the other.

If a bill with a withdrawal deadline manages to clear both houses, as now seems possible, the media are likely to present it as a Democratic victory. That may put the squeeze on the President to make good on his promise to veto the bill. On the other hand, he may just muggle it up with one of his bizarre signing statements, taking the money, and tossing away the bit about withdrawal.

What he does will in part determine whether this will turn out to be better than no deal at all or a very bad deal.