File under "Electability." I came across an interesting
paper by Moore Information, a public opinion research firm in Portland, Oregon that argues that Republicans are kidding themselves if they think Dean will be easy to beat in a general election. These Republican pollsters warn
"Dean has the potential to be a formidable candidate who could give the President a very difficult race."
Howard Dean can win because he believes in what he is saying, because he can semi-legitimately spin his record as Governor into one of fiscal conservatism, and because he comes across as if he actually cares about people. We don't know what the issues will be 14 months from now. Perhaps the economy will be rolling and the President will be soaring. If that's the case, no one can beat him.
But there is the potential for the economy to remain sluggish and stagnant and conditions in the Middle East are impossible to predict. Should these situations remain status quo or worsen, America will be looking for someone new, someone fresh, someone who can shake America out of the doldrums and reinvigorate the body politic. Dean would provide solutions and excitement where the other Democrats, while perhaps polished and attractive, are not as convincing because they don't have the perceived conviction of a Howard Dean.
Furthermore, if one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham, how can anyone write off Howard Dean? Because Graham can win Florida, he can win the White House? Well, Dr. Dean knows a little something about health care and there are a few folks in that state who have some stake in the issue. And let's not forget the President's noble efforts to reform Social Security, a demagogue's dream in the Sunshine State.
...
The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn't look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.
I find their reasoning interesting because, well, it agrees with my own. Their entire memo includes an electoral analysis that is simplistic, but not unreasonable.
Will these two Republican pollsters be ignored? The Bush team suffers from that kind of wishful which ignores any facts or ideas that conflict with pre-existing views. That malady has yielded disastrous results in foreign policy. Will it have similar results in politics of the 2004 election?