My earlier post on Q4 numbers was mostly guessing. The AP chimes in with some
additional guessing, but of the "educated" kind. And the numbers, if they hold up, are not kind to anyone not named Dean or Clark. (In millions)
Dean $14+
Clark $10-12 + $3.7 in matching funds
Edwards $5.6 + $3.4 in matching funds
Gephardt $3.8 +$3 in matching funds
Kerry Less than $4 + $6.4 in self-loans
Lieberman Less than $3.6 + $3.6 in matching funds
No way Edwards raises $5.6 million. Even the AP sounds skeptical of the claim.
While we are breathlessly anticipating these numbers, I sincerely doubt they will have much effect on the race. Much less, undoubtedly, than they did in the previous three quarters.
Fact is, the previous numbers received wide play because there was nothing else really by which to gauge the horserace. And those early results helped determine which candidates were viable early, and which were destined to be roadkill (witness the pathetic results turned in by Lieberman and Kerry).
But we don't need to see who is viable anymore. On the 15th 31st, when these numbers are officially reported, we'll be days away from actual honest-to-goodness on-the-ground voting. And nothing shouts "viable!" more than winning elections.
So Dean's and Clark's numbers will be heralded for a day or two, but they'll mean nothing if they don't perform on the ground. Fat good Clark's $15 million (including matching funds) will do if he can't win any of the first nine contests. And all of Dean's fundraising accolades will fall meekly by the wayside if he falters in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Gephardt's $3.8 million may seem paltry, but no one will care if he wins Iowa and shocks on Feb. 2. And people will forgive Kerry's desperate mortgaging of his house if he can parlay that act into new electoral vitality.
All to say that for the first time in a year, these numbers really don't mean that much.
Correction: and this is a big one -- Q4 numbers don't have to be reported until the end of January, meaning the results will have an even smaller effect on the race.