By yours truly 8)
Preface: I like Dean a lot.. and I'm still supporting him, and plan on voting for him here in Florida in the Primary,assuming he is still in the race.
I'm not a liberal, as you can see by my tagline..grin
I'm as moderate as they come honestly, and I find people on the extremes of either end to be.. well.. lets be nice about it! heH
So.. what do
I think went wrong?
A few things:
- The WORST self oppo I've ever seen.-To my mind this is #1. This is not to put down Deans honesty, in fact the number 1 reason I've supported Dean with Time and money has been I felt he was honest. What I'm referring here to is the rather OBVIOUS fact that Dean simply did horrible self oppo. He didn't fix those skeletons, he didn't even address them. And when non political people start to pay attention, they are VERY easy to sway with that stuff.
- Bad strategy- Dean blew to much money on buliding a 50 state monster. This is a little out of the CW but youcan see the effects. This year, unlike any other is SO frontloaded that "MO" is everything.
If Dean had won Iowa, I wouldn't be posting this. In fact what the DNC has done is now make Iowa 4000% MORE important that it ever was. Because EVERYTHING is so close together now, MO triumphs organization, # of active supporters, money.. everything. Dean DIDN'T blow 40 Million on Iowa and NH.. he blew about 8 million.. MOST of his cash went to building this HUGE structure, that would have been GREAT in a GE, but with the MO of Iowa.. is worthless.
3) The AD campaign- Now personally I don't think MOST of his ads are that bad, but the Iowa one.. with the white background.. that was crap.. pure crap. And with the afformentioned "MO" truimphing all now once you win Iowa, that 1 ad hurt him the most of all his ads.
I think it boils down to this:
Dean lost BECAUSE he was trying to run a GE, not a PC. HE lost because he thought he had the nomination in the bag in some way (I don't think it was a concious thought, but they planned that way.) and stumbled at the worst possible time.
The DNC has made Iowa the decider of the election.
An Iowa win makes you look like a WINNER to NH, and people LIKE winners.
There are MORE non political people who vote for the current winner than there are activists who bleed for a campaign.
Its simple math.
So what has Dean taught us?
- YOU MUST WIN IOWA.
- SELF OPPO IS A KEY!
- DON'T RUN A PRIMARY CAMPAIGN LIKE A GENERAL ELECTION.
This is just my thoughts.. I'm sorry to see Dean come to this. I really am.
I'll vote for Kerry, I won't work for him, but I'll vote for him. I have little faith that he will win however.. very very little.
If Bush should win in 04, I hope Dean runs again in 08. I'll be right there.. working for him. And maybe, just maybe, he will win then.