Ehud Olmert might actually
"get it"
Breaking News - Olmert hopeful on W. Bank plan
Israel's offensives in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip will help it carry out planned withdrawals in the West Bank, Ehud Olmert said.
In a Reuters interview Wednesday, the Israeli prime minister said that by fighting Hezbollah and Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists, Israel was building the stability needed to implement Olmert's withdrawal plan.
"I genuinely believe that the determination that Israel manifests and the power that we project and the outcome of these operations both in the South and in the North will ultimately lay the foundations for movement in the framework of the realignment," he said.
Hezbollah truly does desire the extermination of Israel. Hamas? Yes, but less so, in my opinion. Hezbollah is also Shia and the Sunni nations of Egpyt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are quite nervous about Iran's growing influence.
So, Israel has an opportunity to play upon the Shia-Sunni split and perhaps create a viable two state peace with the Palestinians. Elements of the plan, as I would attempt:
(1) Pound the snot out of Hezbollah and make nice with the Palestinians at the same time. Go around Hamas directly to the people and implement that two state solution. To help, the U.S. should stand ready to offer massive developmental aid to build up the economny and standard of living in the West Bank and Gaza.
(2) Talk with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They have already given a tacit green light to knocking down Hezbollah a peg. Obtain their assistance in pushing Hamas out of power and creating a genuine two state solution.
(3) Flood the West Bank and Gaza (and Lebanon after the war) with developmental aid and build those countries up.
I believe this is also entirely consistent with Pericles excellent diary on asymmetric warfare, Flies with Hammers - - to quote Pericles:
If a direct kill-the-insurgents strategy is doomed to failure, what can the occupier do?
. . .
All effective anti-insurgent strategies involve drying up the supply of recruits by isolating the insurgents from the larger population. In the so-called "ink spot" strategies the isolation is geographic: a small area is pacified and reconstructed to the point that it becomes governable. The population, seeing the benefits of peaceful governance, resists insurgent efforts to infiltrate. The surrounding areas come to envy the pacified area, and the governable "ink spot" spreads. Other kinds of isolation can also work, as long as the population comes to see a clear separation between itself and the insurgents rather than a slippery slope.
Insurgency by its nature is a low-lifespan occupation. Lenin's line about revolutionaries - that they are dead men on furlough - applies even more so to insurgents. They must take action to stay relevant, and any action they take carries great risk. Without a constant resupply of recruits ready to die, an insurgency withers.
In order to disrupt that supply, the occupier need not be loved. It need only convince the population that ending the occupation is not worth dying for.
Be nice to your average Palestinian and pound the crap out of Hezbollah. Classic ink spot strategy.
I have great sympathy for the Palestinian people not only because of Israel but because of how their so-called Muslim brothers cynically use the plight of the Palestinians for their own agenda.
Israel now has a chance to turn those tables.
Annoy the neo-cons
This plan will also annoy the neo-cons. From the rest of the news link:
The remarks were denounced by Israelis who see the current flare-up in regional violence as a direct result of Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza last year.
"Any intelligent person realizes that the war defeated realignment," said Zevulun Orlev, a lawmaker with the National Religious Party.
"Olmert suffers from diplomatic blindness."
Many on the Right seek only pain for ALL Muslims and will go ballistic over a plan to create a viable two state solution. That means no Jesus landing pad among other things.
Note that pounding Hezbollah may well give Olmert the internal credibility and poll numbers to pursue this plan.
Well, good say I. And unlike our leaders, Ehud Olmert may actually prove to be skilled at diplomacy.