I mostly missed MTP this morning but I went through the transcript and dug out a couple of nuggets for discussion.
First this:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4265280/
MR. RUSSERT: Oh, it's back. This is a mere facsimile, but it's real. Bush, 271; Gore, 266--that's the Electoral College. I said in 2000, it was Florida, Florida, Florida. 2004, it's turnout, turnout...
MS. IFILL: Turnout, turnout.
MR. RUSSERT: ...turnout. Matt Dow, the president's pollster, said that if women, blacks and Hispanics vote in the same percentages that they voted in 2000, because of changing demographics, the president would lose by three million popular votes, not by a half million.
Then where the swing states are:
MR. RUSSERT: Well, let me show you exactly what happened in 2000, and what I think we have to look forward to in 2004. Look at these states. This was Florida. Dead even, practically. New Mexico, .1 difference. Wisconsin, .2 difference. Iowa, .3 difference. Oregon--Look at these. And look at the next five closest states. Look at these numbers: 48.1 to 46.8; Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio.
And I would definitely add Louisiana and Arkansas to the swing state list and maybe Tennessee.