Charlie Cook of NationalJournal.com on the 2006 House Races, "In looking at the current political playing field for the House, it's hard to see how Democrats can make up much ground in the next cycle."
A very early preview of 2006 House races shows slim pickings for both sides. With just a handful of retirements -- and few competitive open seats on the horizon -- both sides are scrambling to find serious challengers to a dwindling field of vulnerable incumbents. With the caveat that unpredictable events could always impact the 2006 landscape, Republicans do not appear to be in danger of losing their majority.
Do House Democrats have more seat in jeopardy than Republicans?
At this point, Democrats actually have more seats in jeopardy than Republicans have. Currently, there are four Democratic seats in the toss-up category: John Salazar in Colo.-03, Melissa Bean in Ill.-08, Charlie Melancon in La.-03 and Chet Edwards in Texas-17. And if the Republican-drawn map in Georgia passes Justice Department muster, Democrat Jim Marshall in Ga.-03 will find himself in a very competitive race.
The only two toss up in Republican held seats according to Charlie Cook are if Rep.
Jim Nussle of Iowa-01 and
Bob Beauprez of Colorado-07 if they run for Governor in their states.
Which other seats are the Republicans are going to target in 2006?
Republicans are likely to put long-time targets Reps. Darlene Hooley (Ore.-05), Jim Matheson (Utah-02), Dennis Moore (Kan.-03) and Earl Pomeroy (N.D.-At Large) in their sights, but there is little reason to believe that these incumbents are in any danger of losing their seats. All have survived rough and tumble campaigns in the past. Freshman Reps. Russ Carnahan (Mo.-03) and Brian Higgins (N.Y.-27) won with less than 54 percent of the vote in 2004, but both sit in heavily Democratic districts and will be tough to unseat.
The decision by Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes to retire is likely to shake up the Maryland congressional delegation as four current congressmen -- Chris Van Hollen (Md.-08), Dutch Ruppersberger (Md.-02), Ben Cardin (Md.-03) and Elijah Cummings (Md.-07) -- are all looking at running for his seat. Although the 2nd and 3rd districts are not as safely Democratic as Van Hollen's or Cummings' seat, both districts retain a solid Democratic core (Kerry won each with 54 percent). The only other potential open seat that would be problematic for Democrats is in Ohio, where 6th District Rep. Ted Strickland is reportedly looking at running for the Senate. Strickland's southern Ohio district narrowly went for Bush in 2004 by 51 percent.
Which seats are the Democrats are going to target in 2006?
Democrats, meanwhile, are looking at a reliably blue state with a majority Republican delegation -- Connecticut -- for some opportunities. Fourth District Rep. Chris Shays, who last year took just 52 percent of the vote against first-time Democratic nominee Diane Farrell, is a primary target. Farrell is publicly mulling a second run, and would give Shays another tough race in 2006. Democrats are also focused on dislodging three-term GOP Rep. Rob Simmons in the state's 2nd District. But the fact that Simmons has won his last two re-election campaigns with 54 percent of the vote -- 14 points better than Bush's performance in this district -- shows his strong campaign skills.
Finally, Democrats are pointing to 31-year-old Democratic state Sen. Chris Murphy as a serious opponent to long-time GOP Rep. Nancy Johnson in the state's 5th District. Johnson is no easy target, however. Not only has she built a profile that is well-suited for this marginal district, but she has also proven to be one of the most aggressive campaigners in the House. She ended 2004 with more than $1 million in the bank.
Outside of Connecticut, Democrats are eying state Sen. Ron Klein as a serious challenger to Rep. Clay Shaw (R) in southern Florida. Still, Shaw is an experienced campaigner who has beaten back serious challenges under district lines that were much more beneficial to Democrats.
Can the Democrat reclaim the Majority in the House in 2006?
In looking at the current political playing field, it is hard to see how Democrats can make up much ground in 2006. To pick up the 15 seats that Democrats need to take the majority, they would need to hold onto every one of their 11 competitive seats and then win 15 of 17 (or 88 percent) of the vulnerable and potentially vulnerable Republican-held seats. Arguably, Democrats needs two things to win: a political environment that is tilted their way and a team of quality non-incumbents on field.
The Political environment is starting to tilt to the Democratic side, with House leadership with no ethics, behold to powerful corporations and the 'Christian' Right'. Republican house members are running in 2006 with President Bush and Tom Delay failed leadership around their necks. The Democratic Party will and must pick up the mantle of reform to kick the bums out in 2006!