I believe that Dean will defeat Bush by at least the amount Clinton defeated Bush's father. This is the first in a series of posts explaining why I hold this belief.
Dean Meetups in Swing States
Today, January 6, Dean will pass 170,000 signups for Meetup. However, as most of us know, several people who have signed up are not active, have switched to a different candidate, have signed up more than once, or live in areas of relatively little importance to the general election.
Since I am sitting around waiting to find out where my next organizing campaign will take place, I have quite a bit of time on my hands. So, by sifting through Meetup.com, I set about determining just how many distinct, active, current Dean supporters live either in swing states or within a one-hour drive of a swing state.
Through Meetup, since the start of 2003, Dean has assembled nearly 40,000 distinct, currently active volunteers who either live in swing states or within a one-hour drive of a swing state. Here is the breakdown for each state, listed in order from most electoral votes to least, with particularly strong states in bold:
Florida
- + signed up
- + active members
Pennsylvania (including parts of southern NJ, northern DE, and southern NY)
- + signed up
- + active members
Ohio (includes eastern IN and northern KY)
- + signed up
- + active members
Michigan
- + signed up
- + active members
Virginia (including DC, parts of MD, and northern NC)
- + signed up
- + active members
Missouri (including southern IL and eastern KS)
- + signed up
- + active members
Tennessee
- + signed up
- + active members
Arizona
- + signed up
- + active members
Minnesota
- + signed up
- + active members
Washington
- + signed up
- + active members
Wisconsin
- + signed up
- + active members
Colorado
- + signed up
- + active members
Louisiana
- + signed up
- + active members
Iowa (Include eastern NE and Southeast SD)
- + signed up
- + active
Oregon
- + signed up
- + active
Arkansas
- + signed up
- + active
Nevada
- + signed up
- + active
New Mexico
- + signed up
- + active
West Virginia
- + signed up
- + active
New Hampshire (Includes VT and eastern MA)
- + signed up
- + active
One sign you have a ludicrously strong campaign is when having 1,500 active volunteers in just one type of activist organization in Michigan looks weak compared to your organization in several other states.
Come November, there are many reasons to believe the size of this activist army, already far stronger than any other activist organization in the country, will triple. With over 100,000 volunteers prepared to work for Dean in swing states alone through Meetup alone, I have a strong reason to believe Dean will win this election.