I had retired this feature since the campaign had become a boring 1-2 of Dean and Clark. But after last night, everything has changed. So it's time to trot out the good ol' Cattle Call and see what it has to say.
Normally I would ask for reader feedback prior to running this, but given my schedule this week, I want to take the opportunity right now while I know I have time.
So without further ado:
1. Dean
That's a down arrow, way down. "Aura of inevitability" has been shattered. The "perfect storm" ended like the original one -- in disaster. Word from the pros (and Dean allies) is that Dean's ads are the worst of the lot. And to top it all off, he's lost his message.
But he still has more money than anyone else, and still leads in most of the national and state polls. The polls will probably shift some, but until then, Dean hangs on to the top slot. Even if he doesn't deserve it.
2. Kerry
That's an up arrow, way up. Wins the first real contest of the season. Has already seen a surge in NH reversing a near-catastrophic fall. But has he blown his kitty rescuing his campaign in Iowa? Remember, he's self-funding.
And he's still looking bleak post-NH. Whether Iowa helps reverse his poll numbers elsewhere remains to be seen.
3. Edwards
Shows electoral strength outside his regional base. His campaigning has improved by leaps and bounds, and he's finally connecting with the crowds (what took him so long?).
Like Kerry, he needs to parlay Iowa into strength elsewhere. Does he compete in NH, or focus on the Feb. 3 states? Will he have the money for the long-haul? Stay tuned.
4. Clark
Sitting out Iowa never hurt as much as it probably hurts now. The last thing he needed was a strengthened Kerry AND Edwards. Now, he'll have to deal with both those rejuvinated foes in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.
One of Dean's problems is that his 50-state strategy, while still correct (IMHO), stretches him thin. It looks like Clark will face the same problem -- struggling against Kerry and/or Dean for second-place in NH, Edwards in SC, Dean in AZ, NM and OK. (And Edwards in OK if he has the cash to compete there as well.)
5. Lieberman
Down arrow, way down. The forgotten man in all of this. Doesn't have the poll numbers, doesn't have the cash, doesn't have a natural constituency in the Democratic primaries. He'll be the next of the major candidates to drop out.