Advertising has interesting dynamics. It relies relies on the unspoken impressions of it's target audience. Succsessfull advertising 'taps' into vageries that are felt, but not yet explainable.
Working against that is the fact that we have become a fairly ad savy society. We instinctively distrust them.
Sooner or later we find the words to voice the vague impressions which the ads play upon. Once that happens, the ads are rarely effective.
All you have to do is watch ads from the 60s or 70s. These things sold products when they were contemporary, but it is impossible to imagine those ads working today. We simply see through the pitch.
This is my impression of the Bush ads to date. They are dragging old clothes out of the closet in the hope they are hip again.
An ad campaign can only run so long before it is recognized as BS. It's a hit and run business.
Running the Mohammed Horten ad this early effectively neutralizes whatever effect they hoped it would conjur come election day. It's 1/2 life will have expired.
I don't think this ad was particularly effective in the first place, but I could be wrong. It's not the cold slap in the face that the original Willie Horton ad delivered. It feels too familiar - like we have been here before. In short, it's a dud.
I wouldn't count on this level of incompetence continuing. The repubs have some masterful manipulators on their side.
But maybe, the untapped impression - ripe for ad manipulation - is the sense that we are sick of being divided over phony wedge issues. We have real problems and real work to do. Maybe our ad savy has us to the point where phony wedge issues are as instantly obvious as a snake oil pitch. Lets hope so.