As the 1980 campaign was winding to a close, with the one-year anniversary of the Iranian hostage crisis about to coincide with Election Day and the incumbent president stunned by his challenger's recent debate performance, the Carter Administration announced on the Sunday before the election a possible breakthrough in negotiations with the hostage-takers.
No, this is not a warning to be prepared for a last-minute Hail Mary from Karl Rove, although there's no reason to banish the thought... .
The Carter breakthrough story turned out to be a dead end, and only served to remind voters in the final days of the campaign of the inability of Jimmy Carter to deal with the hostage crisis. The trickle of undecideds that had begun to break for Ronald Reagan became a torrent and Carter went down to an ignominius defeat.
This week's news from Iraq could have the same effect on George W. Bush. I'm not suggesting a move of the same magnitude as in 1980 is possible, but 52%-48% Kerry and 311 EVs is not out of the question.
First, there was the Sunday ambush of the Iraqi security trainees. Next came the revelation that 380 tons of high-powered explosives are missing because of our apparent failure to secure the site. Then today we have the stunning public criticism from Allawi that the Sunday ambush was due to the negligence of U.S.-led forces. These "reality-based" stories are forceful illustrations of our failure in Iraq. The President's silence so far is deafening.
Bush's main argument to remaining undecideds is that he has kept us safe in the aftermath of 9/11. These stories suggest otherwise. These stories do nothing but strengthen the resolve of Kerry supporters just as they, no doubt, shake the faith of at least some Bush supporters who still have one foot in the reality-based community.
It's a tragic situation on the ground in Iraq, but favorable terrain for Kerry for the final week of the campaign.