In an attempt to find out where the candidates are today in the electoral vote I used the following formula:
- Take median of Bush vs. Kerry in the last four national polls. Average Bush or Kerry's lead with the partisan index for each state found here: http://www.fairvote.org/map/pres2000.htm#battleground
- Add 8 points to any home state candidate, 4 points to VP candidate (not known for the Dems yet) and 2 points to a Presidential candidate whose state borders the state, to include some small regional effect and a large home state effect.
- Average the combined total of procedures above to the latest state poll for each candidate (if no state polls later than 2/28/04 no state poll used).
- Where the result is a tie, give the state to Bush if the governor is Republican and to the Democrat if the governor is a Democrat.
This method combines national polls, a state's partisan History and state polls to try to arrive at a relatively objective picture of where the candidates stand today.
This weeks result Bush and Kerry are tied in the popular vote but Bush leads Kerry 287-251 in the Electoral Vote
Last week's result Bush lead Kerry by 3% and lead in the electoral college 300-238
According to this method Kerry currently leads in CA, CT, DC, DE, FL, HA, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA
State by state for all states in extended text:
TOO CLOSE TO CALL (130 electoral votes, 65 for Kerry, 65 for Bush)
ME Kerry +4 (4 EV)
MI Kerry +4 (17 EV)
OR Kerry +2.5 (7)
MN Kerry +2.5 (10)
FL Kerry +1.5 (27)
NH Bush +0 (4)
PA Bush +1 (21)
OH Bush +1 (20)
NM Bush +2 (5)
WI Bush +3 (10)
WV Bush +3.5 (5)
LEAN KERRY (18 electoral votes)
IA Kerry +5 (7)
WA Kerry +5 (11)
LEAN BUSH (65 electoral votes)
MO Bush +5.5 (11)
CO Bush +7 (9)
NV Bush +7.5 (5)
AZ Bush +7.5 (10)
TN Bush +7.5 (11)
AR Bush +8 (6)
VA Bush +8 (13)
SAFE KERRY (168 electoral votes)
CA +10.5, CT +18.5, DE +12, DC +76, HA +18, IL +10, MD +10.5, MA +34, NJ +14, NY +26, RI +30, VT +10
SAFE BUSH (157 electoral votes)
AL +23, AK +32, GA +12, ID +37, IN +15.5, KS +20, KY +16, LA +10, MS +16, MT +24, NE +30, NC +10, ND +28, OK +24, SC +16, SD +22, TX +23.5, UT +36, WY +44