Kudos to The Des Moines Register

In Polling Interlude Part I, we talked about house effects and holiday polling in Iowa. In Part II, we talked about respected IA polls and the Des Moines Register's topping the list based on 2004 results.

Well, guess what? Despite skepticism this year, DMR [and J. Anne Selzer, their pollster] nailed some very important points. They predicted the 200K Dem turnout, and they predicted (Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%) the Obama win (final numbers: Obama 38%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 30%). Obama hit 35% in the IA entrance poll.

Other important factors picked up by DMR:

In an indication of the Obama's appeal in Iowa, Democratic caucusgoers say they prefer change and unity over other leadership characteristics.

52% of Dem delegates listed "can bring change" as the top candidate quality in the Entrance Poll (Obama grabbed 51% of that vote), while only 20% listed experience (Hillary got 49% of them). Edwards got the 'cares about people' (19%) delegates and the 'electability' group (only 8%).

All of the three leaders in Iowa draw a majority of support from new caucusgoers, although Obama benefits the most with 72 percent of his support coming from first-timers compared to 58 percent of Clinton's and 55 percent of Edwards'supporters.

According to the Entrance Poll, 57% of attendees were first time caucus goers (Obama won that group, by 41% to 29% Clinton and 18% Edwards).

On the GOP side, DMR had Huckabee 32% to Romney 26% (and had McCain 3d at  13%, Thompson at 9%, even though Thompson edged out McCain by a whisker).

Huckabee, whose Iowa support has soared in the last two months, continues to benefit from the backing of religious conservatives who have an affinity for him and the values he espouses:

- Nearly one-half of likely Republican caucusgoers describe themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christians. Within that large group, Huckabee outpolls Romney, 47 percent to 20 percent. Romney has faced questions about his religious standing as a Mormon.

In the Entrance Poll, GOP voters described themselves as very conservative (45%) and somewhat conservative (43%) and they went for Huckabee, as did Religious Beliefs of Candidate Matter delegates... A Great Deal (36%) and Somewhat (31%) went for Huck; Romney won the Not Much (18%) and Not At All (15%) factions. (Iowa is not New Hampshire).

More analysis on the Entrance poll is here by Gary Langer (ABC).

Broad interest in "change" among Democrats and overwhelming Republican turnout by evangelicals spelled victory for a pair of insurgents in Thursday's Iowa caucuses, opening the 2008 election cycle with a boom.

Young voters, independents and first-time caucus-goers lifted Barack Obama to victory, along with his theme of a new direction in politics. Remarkably, he even beat Hillary Clinton among women.

After reading the DMR poll for both sides, no one should have been surprised by either of the results. Kudos to them, and the fact that even they didn't nail every number tells us a great deal about how difficult Iowa is to poll.