Darlene Hooley (D) has won the seat several times in this swing district where Rs actually outnumber Ds. This time, she may be in for a tough fight.
Hooley has held this seat since 1996, winning it from Republican Jim Bunn. Hooley typically wins it by playing close to the middle as much as possible, winning over both the soccer mom and the NASCAR dad in this moderate Portland-metro-suburb-type district. It's more rural than Portland, more suburban than outlying communities in Eastern and Southern Oregon. Truly a mixed bag of a district, and Hooley does a good job of balancing competing interests while staying true to the Dems as much as is practically and politically possible.
The R's are determined to get this seat back, so it will be interesting to see who makes it out of the primary to challenge Hooley. The three contenders are:
Jim Zupancic, a well-heeled lawyer from the well-heeled community of Lake Oswego (he used to be on the school board there);
Jackie Winters, a state senator representing Salem. As an African-American Republican woman, Winters is certainly something of a rarity in Oregon Republican politics (not to mention nationally); and
Brian Boquist, the man who unsuccessfully challenged Hooley in 2000 and 2002. Boquist is an army reservist with Special Forces stationed in Baghdad. There was some speculation, fueled by Boquist's comments while stationed in Iraq, that he might not be able to run (somebody keeps extending his tour of duty there...), but he recently filed.
My analysis? It looks like the plays will probably be as follows:
Zupancic and Winters will both run as moderates in the general election. In the primary, though, Zupancic might have the edge, because Winters actually seems to be the more moderate of the two (probably not a good thing in the R primary). Zupancic is likely to campaign against Winters based on her support of a tax hike compromise crafted by the OR legislature last year to balance the budget. This tax increase has unfortunately made it to the ballot via initiative, thanks to some hefty outside support from Citizens for a Sound Economy, and is likely to fail this Tuesday. Winters voted in favor of the budget-balancing tax hike last year; Zupancic paid for an ad in the voter's pamphlet opposing the measure. Most Rs are solidly against the measure. This is likely to be the major issue between the two in the primary.
Boquist, I am assuming, will be running as the guy serving his country in Iraq. His politics are probably the furthest to the right of the three, which is why he has lost this moderate district in the past (that, and a lack of big national $$ to support him), but we all know how much folks love a man in a uniform. (Which probably explains Hooley's Christmas card to all of us in the 5th district with a picture of her, surrounded by a half dozen unnamed guys in uniform.)
Tough to say who the best challenger might be, but if the winner of the primary hasn't been too bruised and battered by fighting off opponents, expect to see some big money pouring into the campaign from the R's national resources. OR-5 is a seat they really, really, want to win back, and this time they think they just might be able to do it.