After Kerry's rather poor week, and two good political weeks for Bush, a lot of people around here seem to be acting like the sky is falling. Time for a little perspective.
In the two most recent polls, taken at the end of this week, Bush holds a 2% point lead in one (MSNBC), and a 1% point lead in the other. Indeed, the Rasmussen tracking poll seems to be suggesting that Kerry's support is ticking upwards again, as Bush held a 47-43 lead on Thursday and Friday, while today he only holds a 46-45 lead.
Did people here really expect that Kerry was not going to run into problems, and that Bush was going to run an incompetent campaign every day of 2004? The doubting people seem to be having now seems to me to be case of people getting to wrapped up in the immediate moment. There are going to swings. We all (?) knew this. Kerry has certain campaigning problems right now, but they are all fixable - and I have confidence he can fix them. Goodness knows, he's gone through much worse in the primary season already. Of course, Bush's machine is a powerful weapon, but I take heart that the full force of his campaign has only given him a miniscule lead. The fact of the matter is is that this is a very polarized electorate and this will be a close election.
Another thing to keep in mind. One of Rove's big psychological strategies is to create a false sense of inevitability and triumphalism to demoralize his opponents and to make unaffiliated voters want to join a side that seems like "winners." Don't fall into this trap, fellow Kossites. His confidence is deliberately false bravado - its a major part of how he operates. Remember 2000? And some of Rove's predictions? And how did that turn out in the end? (or maybe I shouldn't ask the last question, but you get my point)
The simple fact is is that Rs have no more of a monopoly or a pulse on the concerns of average voters. Instead, I think Bush and co underestimate just how much opposition to the administration exists and simultaneously overestimate how much resonance the R message has. We aren't living in 1972 or 1984 anymore.
Ben P