Part 2 of 2
Yesterday, I updated the GOP-held Senate seats coming up in 2004. Today, I'll discuss the Democrats. Obivously, with 5 open seats in the South, we have our work cut out for us. However, a closer look at who and what is happening in each of the 19 races will show that the Democrats, with the exception of Georgia, are well-prepared for 2004's GOP onslaught in the Senate races.
1) Georgia-I will be first to admit that this seat will be quite difficult to hold in 2004. So far, the GOP has three strong candidates-Congressmen Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and African-American owner of "Godfather's Pizza" Herman Cain. The Democrats so far have just one candidate: State Senator Mary Squires, a little-known liberal who has a strong resume (she's a military veteran, for example), but zero chance of actually winning in November. Democrats are currently searching for a strong candidate to have a fighting chance to keep the seat in Democratic hands.
Who could this candidate be? The likeliest one at this point is Michael Coles, the 1998 Senate nominee against the late Paul Coverdell (with Zell Miller's retirement, this Senate seat will have had 3 Senators in 6 year-Coverdell, Miller and whoever wins in November.). Coles, a self-made millionaire who created the Great American Cookie Company, lost 52-46% against Coverdell in 1998, a stronger showing than expected. Coles has an amazing life story, as he sucessfully regained the use of his legs following an automobile accident. Coles could self-fund, which would help greatly, and has name recognition from his previous run. He is considering a bid at this point.
Another possible candidate is Columbus attorney Jim Butler. Butler is a millionaire trial lawyer, but is also quite conservative (think Zell Miller, but much younger). He too could self-fund. Finally, there is talk of Congresswoman Denise Majette running for the seat, as well as Congressman Jim Marshall. Majette could be the nominee if Coles declines to run, while Marshall is unlikely to. Bottom line, the GOP would have to self-destruct to lose this race. Although it is true that Isakson and Collins are engaged in a "Can you top my Conservative Credentials" at this point, the likely winner will probably still have enough support to win this seat. However, should Coles be our nominee, we would have a fighting chance at retaining this seat.
- North Carolina: Not much to report here. Democrats have rallied behind Erskine Bowles, the GOP behind Congressman Richard Burr. It should be noted that while the Raleigh News poll showed Bowles ahead 43-40, this is an improvement over a September poll that showed Burr ahead by a 43-37 margin. This race will be a tossup all the way to election day, I think. The fact that North Carolina continues to bleed jobs has forced Burr to distance himself from Bush on trade issues, something that Bowles is pouncing on.
- South Carolina: As Kos mentioned, Inez Tenenbaum is the Democratic nominee in all, but name, and she is a phenomenal candidate. A friend of mine (a Democrat named Joshua who lives in SC)says that Tenenbaum is highly popular among women, who make up 60% of SC's voting electorate. This is why she did so well in 2002, winning with 60% and leading all other winners in votes. She currently leads the 4 announced GOP candidates in a released Republican poll, which shows her strength as a candidate. I truly think this race will stay Democratic, although with Bush the likely winner in SC, it will be close.
- Florida: Betty Castor is the leading Democratic candidate for this Senate race. The former Education Commissioner and University President has been endorsed by many leading Democrats, including Janet Reno. The GOP still has to deal with a crowded field, with the specter of Katherine Harris looming over them in Florida. If you're a Democrat, pray that she enters the race. It will give the Democrats the edge in the Senate race, and will hurt Bush in Florida as well.
- Louisiana: Ah yes, the Bayou State, which has been quite good to Democrats recently, will have another great Senate race in 2004. The Republicans are uniting behind Congressman David Vitter, a strong conservative who has a reputation for nastiness. The Democrats will likely rally behind Congressman Chris John, a Breaux Democrat who has the Senator's support. Considering that this state is swinging towards centrist Democrats (Landrieu, Blanco, etc.), I say that the centrist John will win this race, unless something unexpected happens. Still, don't bet on Bush losing this state in 2004.
As for the other seats, here are some quick updates:
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold has a reelect score of 50% in the latest independent poll. Having fundraised much earlier than last time, he'll be going back to D.C. in 2005, mark my words. Still, it should be noted that he has drawn 3 opponents: State Senator Bob Welch, Tim Michels, a millionaire businessman, and auto dealer Russ Darrow.
South Dakota: My sources are telling me that John Thune will "probably" not run against Tom Daschle. This leaves Daschle in the clear in 2004.
In North Dakota, Duane Sand, the sacrificial lamb to Kent Conrad in 2000, is running again in 2004 against Byron Dorgan. And once again, he will be a sacrificial lamb.
Nothing else is really happening in the other seats. Republicans are running a Pat Buchanan activist named Ike Wilkerson as the victim against Bayh (who is often "Bayh-Partisan"), and the other Democrats are looking pretty good as well.