This is a post I made for my local blog here in Vegas, but I think it sums up how we can win the election.
The goal is to give Bush voters from 2000 a narrative that allows them to feel positive about their vote for Bush in 2000, yet change that vote in 2004. I haven't put in any hyperlinks, but longtime Kos readers will know whether I'm just making this stuff up or not.
Please correct any gross errors or misstatements of fact. The ideas here come from many sources, a primary inspiration is Digby's blog, which is invaluable. If I have used something that I read somewhere without proper attribution please lemme know.
Modern presidential elections are mostly about narrative. As much as we some would like them to be about policy, narrative seems to be what is demanded both by the media and by the voting public. Currently, Bush the warrior seems to be the chosen narrative of the GOP, and left un-countered it could be a very powerful one.
For the purposes of this article, I will assume that Howard Dean wins the Democratic nomination, but any Democratic candidate, with the possible exception of Lieberman, could use this strategy.
While it is satisfying to moderate and left-leaning members of the electorate to enumerate the lunacy, outrages, and hypocrisy of the current administration, the nearly half of the electorate who voted for it will find such attacks simply partisan, and will necessarily discount them.
A better narrative is called for: one that utilizes the strength of the Democratic party, while attacking the administration on its home turf . The Republican party will continue to attempt to frame the narrative as George W. Bush the warrior valiantly crusading to save America from terrorism. Our narrative must counter this one, without seeming to be a partisan attack.
It is my considered opinion that one of the best ways to defeat George Bush in 2004 will be to use his worst enemy against him. The George Bush of 2004 is diametrically opposed to the vast majority of policy proposals put forward by this person: George Bush of 2000.
Many readers will remember the excellent "Daily Show" routine where Jon Stewart had a debate between President Bush and Governor Bush. This method of attack does three important things:
- It places Bush on the defensive immediately. Instead of defending his record against attacks by Democrats, he must explain why his policies had to change. It is my opinion that simply repeating the mantra of 9/11 will steadily reveal the man behind the curtain. It is possible that it will not, but I think the nation is now skeptical in the extreme that 9/11 changed every scintilla of the nature of government, and since this will be his only defense, it will ring hollow.
- By using the narrative that Bush ran on one platform and governed differently, it allows moderate Republicans and Independents, as well as some right-wing Democrats to feel that they are doing the right thing by voting against him the 2nd time. While I believe it is likely that Howard Dean will strongly outperform Bush in both the youth and the elder demographics, it is necessary to allow a simple mental out for those people who will be changing their votes from 2000. Using this technique is ideal. Put simply, "I voted for Bush's platform of 2000, but he didn't carry it out, so this time I'm voting for Dean."
- By focusing the negative attacks as Bush vs. Bush, the positive messages can all be policy related and the focus of the candidate on TV and in interviews can be on substantive proposals to improve the nation's situation. Since there is so much material to attack Bush 2004 on using Bush 2000, Howard Dean could utilize the same strategy that Bush 2000 used against Al Gore. Bush allowed the rest of the Republican party to make all the arguments against the administration, then seemed above the fray and focused on benefiting the populace at large.
More importantly, pointing out his promises vs. his record will demonstrate his lack of commitment to the truth, the fact that everything he utters is largely for political expedience. This should make him defensive on his "strongest" issues of leadership, integrity, and honesty.
We must make it so that a Bush voter from 2000 can say to himself, "I voted for George Bush in 2000 because I believe that he was honest and would support education, Social Security and Medicare, but now that I see that he hasn't done any of these things, I'm going to vote for Howard Dean."
The effects of September 11 still reverberate with large segments of the populace. Whether an attack on Bush about his actions that day will be needed remains to be seen. But such an attack is now possible politically, since the inability to find WMD has damaged Bush's credibility with a large number of voters. While 9/11 changed many things about the perception of George Bush, it did not wipe away public memory of campaign 2000 completely. The time has come to hold him accountable. As he himself said,
"... to lead this nation to a responsibility era, a president himself must be responsible."
With this in mind, I think it's important to revisit his 2000 acceptance speech in Philadelphia. Bush himself chose specific themes to highlight. These were issues he claimed to feel strongly on, and the ones he put forward to the electorate as his strongest positions.
George Bush said: ".... We will extend the promise of prosperity to every forgotten corner of this country. "
What really happened was the largest expansion of the federal deficit ever, a net loss of over 3.4 million jobs, and a looting of the treasury. Mr. Bush and his Republican congress not only haven't extended prosperity to every forgotten corner, they have removed prosperity from many known parts of the country.
George Bush said: "Our military is low on parts, pay and morale. If called on by the commander-in-chief today, two entire divisions of the Army would have to report ... Not ready for duty, sir."
What really happened was that George Bush put our troops: the finest in the world, into an untenable situation. Our troops don't have enough guns, enough armor, and he cut their combat pay while they were in harm's way. Unit morale is considered low by 49% of our deployed troops in Iraq.
What's more, the vast bulk of the Army is tied down in George Bush's war of choice in Iraq.
Nobody forced him to send them there. He and his advisors decided it was important to spend our nation's blood and treasure attacking a sovereign nation that had not attacked us and posed no threat to us. We are far less safe because of this war, and George Bush is the cause of it.
George Bush said: "This generation was given the gift of the best education in American history. Yet we do not share that gift with everyone. Seven of ten fourth-graders in our highest poverty schools cannot read a simple children's book."
George Bush passed the No Child Left Behind Act. This act mandates that all schools that receive federal funds must keep getting better every year. This bill assures that if your child is currently attending one of the best schools in the country, that school will soon have to be pronounced a failure, since test scores cannot always be improved on.
Yet Mr. Bush has shown no interest in giving states the funds needed to comply with this act, thus causing higher property taxes and other state revenue measures. This alone has taken the bulk of the tax cuts he passed for most Americans back out of their pockets. George Bush's education agenda is that of a blustery poker player with a bad hand.
George Bush said: "America has a strong economy and a surplus. We have the public resources and the public will -- even the bipartisan opportunities -- to strengthen Social Security and repair Medicare.
But this administration -- during eight years of increasing need -- did nothing."
And what has George Bush done in office? Worse than nothing. Someone who deliberately set out to destroy Social Security and Medicare could scarcely have achieved more towards that goal.
He's created the largest federal deficit in history along with his Republican colleagues in the congress. Nearly 2/3 of this deficit was caused by his risky tax cut scheme. The risk is now clear. If the deficit stays the way it is, and no changes to programs are made, Social Security and Medicare will go bankrupt.
Mr. Bush swore he would not do this during the campaign. He was lying then. Whatever he says about it now can also be assumed to be a lie.
George Bush said: "We will add the work of our hands to the inheritance of our fathers and mothers -- and leave this nation greater than we found it."
Mr. Bush will leave the nation poorer, weaker, and less safe than when he found it.
George Bush said: "We will strengthen ... Medicare for the greatest generation, and for generations to come.
Medicare does more than meet the needs of our elderly, it reflects the values of our society.
We will set it on firm financial ground, and make prescription drugs available and affordable for every senior who needs them."
George Bush did nothing for 2 years about his much talked-about plan for prescription drug coverage for Medicare. Now he claims to be pushing congress to pass a bill, but instead of forcing them to make that vote, he's pushing for billions for Iraq. 87 billion dollars a year would cover almost all prescription costs for our seniors. But George Bush would rather spend that on health care for Iraqis.
Medicare is on tenuous financial footing primarily because of George Bush's deficits that he created with the help of a Republican congress. George Bush may not be trying to destroy Medicare, but he sure is succeeding at it.
George Bush said: "Social Security has been called the "third rail of American politics" -- the one you're not supposed to touch because it shocks you.
...I intend to fix it.
To seniors in this country ... You earned your benefits, you made your plans, and President George W. Bush will keep the promise of Social Security ... no changes, no reductions, no way. ...
Now is the time to give American workers security and independence that no politician can ever take away."
George Bush no longer even talks about Social Security, so badly flawed were his risky schemes with your money. But have no doubt, had the economy not responded so badly to his attacks on it, he would be attempting to privatize the program now. His deficit, passed with the help of the Republican congress, threatens the financial future of Social Security. This is something he promised never to do, but he expresses no remorse, no dismay. In fact, faced with the choice of saving Social Security or tax cuts for his best friends and campaign contributors, he's chosen the tax cuts every time.
George Bush said: "The surplus is not the government's money. The surplus is the people's money.
I will use this moment of opportunity to bring common sense and fairness to the tax code."
But George Bush had a surplus for about 11 months. After that, he's been happy to spend the people's money like a silly teenager with his dad's credit card. He cared so much about your money when the government had too much of it. Why doesn't he care about it when you're in debt? Faced with the choice of keeping the people's government solvent, and giving tax breaks to the wealthy, George Bush chose the tax breaks.
George Bush: "We will give our military the means to keep the peace, and we will give it one thing more ... a commander-in-chief who respects our men and women in uniform, and a commander-in-chief who earns their respect.
A generation shaped by Vietnam must remember the lessons of Vietnam.
When America uses force in the world, the cause must be just, the goal must be clear, and the victory must be overwhelming."
Mr. Bush's respect doesn't go a long way when you're getting shot at. Mr. Bush served his country by deserting the National Guard in a time of war. Mr. Bush learned none of the lessons of Vietnam, because he is repeating all of them.
Mr. Bush's war in Iraq is presented as Exhibit A that he meant not a single word of this statement. He said this to you, but he was lying.
George Bush said: "I will work to reduce nuclear weapons and nuclear tension in the world -- to turn these years of influence into decades of peace."
Iran and North Korea are both much closer to having nuclear weapons than they were because of George Bush's name-calling, taunting and bitterness. The world now has to face the idea of Iranian mullahs and Kim Jong Il armed with atomic bombs. Nuclear tension is higher than it's been since the end of the cold war. George Bush doesn't even have a strategy to deal with North Korea yet. He wants other countries to solve the problem for him. This shows he was lying to you when he said this.
George Bush said: "I don't have enemies to fight. And I have no stake in the bitter arguments of the last few years. I want to change the tone of Washington to one of civility and respect."
Somebody in George Bush's White House leaked the name of a CIA Agent who was under deep cover to a reporter. George Bush took no action against that person because she was the wife of someone who had criticized him.
Respect: Karl Rove was overheard by a reporter saying about someone who had crossed George Bush, "We will fuck him. Do you hear me? We will fuck him. We will ruin him. Like no one has ever fucked him!"
Civility: The Republican party charged that Max Cleland, a Vietnam veteran who had lost three limbs in service to his country was not interested in the safety of the United States.
In fact George Bush has led the most deeply partisan, least tolerant administration in our lifetimes.
George Bush said: "Big government is not the answer."
In fact, George Bush, along with the Republican congress, has increased the size of the government by 22%. George Bush and the Republican congress have expanded the size of the government more than any administration since the 70s.
George Bush said: "We will give low-income Americans tax credits to buy the private health insurance they need and deserve."
This is a flatly broken promise. And it's something that effects millions of American children. There's something wrong with us when we can spend 87 billion dollars on a war of aggression, but parents who have ill children have to hold bake-sales and church fund drives to cover the costs of their treatment.
George Bush said: "My administration will give taxpayers new incentives to donate to charity, encourage after-school programs that build character, and support mentoring groups that shape and save young lives."
This is another broken promise by Bush, and yet another loss of trust between him and the children of the nation.
George Bush said: "We must tell them, with clarity and confidence, that drugs and alcohol can destroy you, and bigotry disfigures the heart."
Yet George Bush has describe Rush Limbaugh, a drug-addicted race-baiter as a "fine American."
George Bush said: "Corporations are responsible ... to treat their workers fairly, and leave the air and waters clean."
Yet when Enron went bankrupt, leaving its workers with nothing, George Bush offered them nothing. George Bush's Federal Energy Regulatory Commission appointees were recommended by Enron. Martha Stewart has been indicted, but Kenneth Lay, George Bush's transition team advisor, is living off the billions of dollars Enron stole from California.
George Bush has done nothing to make corporations more responsible to the environment. He's done nothing to make our air and water safer or cleaner.
George Bush said: "When I act, you will know my reasons ...When I speak, you will know my heart."
George Bush's war in Iraq was sold with a patina of half-truths and deliberately misleading statements glossed over a gigantic ball of lies. George Bush continually stated that he had not made up his mind to go to war, when the fact is his decision was made in the summer of 2002, when his National Security Advisor, Condoleeza Rice, overheard him saying, "Fuck Saddam, we're taking him out."
George Bush said: "I believe true leadership is a process of addition, not an act of division. I will not attack a part of this country, because I want to lead the whole of it."
George Bush said many fine things in his speech in 2000. Anyone who supported those things has to be dismayed at how poorly he has followed through. Our country stands at a crossroads. We can continue down the path of militarism, loss of moral authority, diplomatic isolationism, fiscal profligacy, treachery against dissent, and petulance over criticism, or we can vote to remove this man. He hasn't kept his promises. He shouldn't be rewarded with a second term.