Texas blacks are fired up

The Obama African American turnout in Texas is going to be huge.

Coleman, a state lawmaker since 1991 who's helped the campaigns of countless Texas Democrats over the years, said he appreciates the conflict that some in the African-American community feel. He was a supporter of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards before he shifted to Obama.

"This is a powerful election year for all Democrats, but maybe especially so for African-Americans," he said. "We have not only a chance but a real chance to put one our own in the White House. People come up to me all the time and say they never expected to see this in their lifetime.

"I never expected to see this in my lifetime," he added. "I'm 46. I grew up when Texas was still segregated. A lot of us did. So are we going to turn out and vote? Hell, yeah."

Blacks are 11.9 percent of the Texas population, compared to 35.7 percent for Hispanics. But they exert a disproportionate influence in the primary electorate:

But Kirk and others said that blacks this year could account for 25 percent to 30 percent of the Democratic turnout. Veteran strategist Kelly Fero, who's white and neutral in the presidential contest, said it could be even higher.

"It's plausible that African-American turnout could push north of 40 percent in the Democratic primary," Fero said.

Today I talked to a reporter working on a piece on the Obama movement, who had just returned from Texas to see the Obama ground game close up. I asked if it lived up to the hype. He said that he had gone down there cynical, not expecting much, but had been utterly blown away. His piece will be out next week I think, and I can't wait to read the details. But bottom line is that Obama has run a volunteer-driven ground game while the Clintons thought they'd run an advertising air war.

There's a reason Obama is outperforming the polls and even my most optimistic vote predictions -- his volunteer-driven ground game is blowing whatever meager operation Clinton has completely out of the water.

The numbers are moving dramatically in Obama's direction right now. He's going to win Texas, and win it comfortably. Here's the thing -- if the Texas election were today, Obama would likely win it by 10 points, regardless what the polls say. His ground operation is that good.

By the time this thing finally rolls around, expect Wisconsin-like numbers. Obama's victory will be complete.