My weekly update ranking the contenders:
- John Edwards. Still number one. While national security and foreign policy have dominated recently, Edwards' populist appeal to swing voters cannot be discounted. Plus, he remains the best campaigner and most telegenic of the contenders. And is the only contender who can appeal to those swing voters both in places like northern Florida and southern Ohio. Whether the ticket neutralizes Bush's advantage on national security issues, depends on Kerry, not his running mate.
- Wesley Clark. The mirror image of Edwards. As long as national security remains front and center, Clark will be near the top. Disadvantages: unproven campaigner and untested on domestic issues.
- Dick Gephardt. The man most of the Democratic internet crowd loves to hate. In Washington too long, sponsor of the IWR, alienator of the Deaniacs, Gephardt has a lot of negatives. But he would bring a lot of positives to the ticket. People who keep saying he is boring have obviously never seen some of his speeches in the House well. Gephardt's problem is that he usually sounds as though he's making a speech when he's just answering a question. But polling showing a tight race in Pennsylvania, battleground states like Ohio, MIchigan and Missouri, and Kerry's need to secure the upper midwest, make Gep a viable contender. Plus, he would be a better attack dog and defender than any one else in the field.
- Bill Richardson. He's back in because of an ambiguous comment he made early in the week. But until the man stops playing games, and starts preparing New Mexico voters for the possibility that he will break his one-term promise, I'm ranking him lower than if he were truly available.
- Bob Graham. Continuing to fall because of concerns about the pizzaz he would bring to the ticket and his age.
- Bill Nelson. Possible loss of another senate seat and questions about how much he will help in Florida, drop him as well.
- Evan Bayh. Shouldn't really be a contender. Up for re-election, can't carry Indiana, no support for the notion that he will appeal to Ohio voters, and DLC backing, should knock him out. Nonetheless, here he is.
Timing prediction for selection. Still early May. But it would be nice if Kerry had him now.