2008 DCCC Target List

The DCCC has released its list of targeted races for the 2008 cycle, and it is manna from heaven for horserace junkies, and really all Democrats who want to feel optimistic about this fall.

They have targeted 59 Republican-held seats up to this point, as well as identifying 31 Democratic-held seats where they'll be focusing on defense.

I've posted the full lists below, along with some commentary. As the lists are so long, I have focused primarily on the races which I was most surprised to see on the list; I'll be posting more on the target list next week.

As usual with lists such as these, caveats apply. First, it is likely that the DCCC will ultimately be involved in several races not on these list, just as it is likely that some of these races will not ultimately be receiving heavy attention from the national party. Second, the DCCC will be focusing predominantly on its Red to Blue races (of which we should see more over the next several months).

That said, here's the list. An asterisk (*) denotes an open seat, (#) denotes a Red to Blue candidate, and italics indicate a Blue Majority candidate (in which case, I've also posted the name of the opposing candidate).

Offense

AL-02 Terry Everett*
AK-AL Don Young
AZ-01 Rick Renzi*
AZ-03 John Shadegg
CA-04 John Doolittle*# (Charlie Brown opposing)
CA-26 David Dreier
CA-50 Brian Bilbray
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave
CT-04 Chris Shays#
FL-08 Ric Keller
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis
FL-13 Vern Buchanan#
FL-15 Dave Weldon*
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart
FL-24 Tom Feeney#
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart (Joe Garcia opposing)
IA-04 Tom Latham
ID-01 Bill Sali
IL-06 Peter Roskam
IL-10 Mark Kirk# (Dan Seals opposing)
IL-11 Jerry Weller*#
KY-02 Ron Lewis*
LA-04 Jim McCrery*
LA-06 Richard Baker*
MD-01 Wayne Gilchrest*
MI-07 Tim Walberg#
MI-09 Joe Knollenberg#
MN-03 Jim Ramstad*
MN-06 Michelle Bachmann
MO-06 Sam Graves#
MO-09 Kenny Hulshof*
NC-08 Robin Hayes#
NJ-03 Jim Saxton*#
NJ-07 Mike Ferguson*#
NM-01 Heather Wilson*
NM-02 Steve Pearce*
NV-02 Dean Heller
NV-03 Jon Porter#
NY-03 Peter King
NY-13 Vito Fossella
NY-25 Jim Walsh*# (Dan Maffei opposing)
NY-26 Tom Reynolds*
NY-29 Randy Kuhl# (Eric Massa opposing)
OH-01 Steve Chabot#
OH-02 Jean Schmidt
OH-14 Steve LaTourette
OH-15 Deborah Pryce*#
OH-16 Ralph Regula*#
PA-03 Phil English
PA-06 Jim Gerlach
PA-18 Tim Murphy
VA-02 Thelma Drake
VA-10 Frank Wolf
VA-11 Tom Davis* (Leslie Byrne opposing)
WA-08 Dave Reichert# (Darcy Burner opposing)
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito#
WY-AL Barbara Cubin*# (Gary Trauner opposing)

Defense

AZ-05 Harry Mitchell
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CT-02 Joe Courtney
CT-05 Chris Murphy
FL-16 Tim Mahoney
FL-22 Ron Klein
GA-08 Jim Marshall
GA-12 John Barrow
IL-08 Melissa Bean
IL-14 Bill Foster
IN-02 Joe Donnelly
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth
IN-09 Baron Hill
IA-03 Leonard Boswell
KS-02 Nancy Boyda
KY-03 John Yarmuth
MN-01 Tim Walz
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-02 Paul Hodes
NY-19 John Hall
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand
NY-24 Michael Arcuri
NC-11 Heath Shuler
OH-18 Zack Space
PA-04 Jason Altmire
PA-08 Patrick Murphy
PA-10 Chris Carney
TX-17 Chet Edwards
TX-22 Nick Lampson
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
WI-08 Steve Kagen

Thoughts on this list:

-Several states have an exceptionally high number of races making the target list; Florida itself counts for 11% of the DCCC targets this cycle, with ten races on the list. New York has eight, Pennsylvania has six, Ohio has five.

Needless to say, the exceptionally high number of Florida races on the list indicates that we need to be playing as hard as we can in the state, which is all the more reason we should keep applying the pressure to Florida Representative and DCCC Red to Blue co-chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

-There are a number of races I’m rather surprised (and pleased) to see on this list, as well as a few missing which I would have liked to have seen. David Dreier in California’s 26th District was a pleasant surprise. Dreier’s district is Republican, but not overwhelmingly Republican, at R+4.1. Still, Dreier has not been seriously challenged in the past, so the fact that this race made the DCCC’s list is a pretty strong affirmation of faith in Democratic candidate Russ Warner.

--I was surprised to see Brian Bilbray in CA-50 on the list as well. Many of you will remember the 2006 campaign of Democrat Francine Busby, who ran against Bilbray in a special election for the seat following the retirement and incarceration of Duke Cunningham. Busby ran a pretty strong race in both the special and general elections, but lost both. The district is solidly Republican at R+4.6, but it is at least theoretically winnable; hopefully, Democrat Nick Leibham is the guy to do it.

--I hadn’t expected IA-04, home of Republican Rep. Tom Latham, to make the list either, though it would be a top-tier pickup opportunity if Latham were to retire. The district is a swing district where Kerry got 48% in 2004; four Democrats are currently vying for the opportunity to take on Rep. Latham. I wouldn’t have considered this a top-tier race with Latham still around, but then again, I didn’t expect Dave Loebsack to beat Jim Leach last year.

--Florida Republican Reps. Ric Keller and Gus Bilirakis both represent moderately Republican leaning districts, and faced somewhat strong challenges in 2006. Keller beat Democrat Charlie Stuart 52% to 46% in 2006 last cycle, and Stuart is back for a second round along with attorney and fellow Democrat Mike Smith. Bilirakis won a relatively high-profile race in 2006, beating Democrat Phyllis Busansky 56-44, which is perhaps unsurprising as his district is even more Republican than Keller’s (Bush beat Kerry 56-43 here).

These races, as previously mentioned, are two of 11 Florida races on the target list. I’m glad the DCCC is looking at both of them, especially FL-08. The inclusion of FL-09, I think, indicates the DCCC’s confidence in Democratic frontrunner and former Plant City mayor John Dicks.

-Finally, as a resident of New York City, I’m positively thrilled to see Reps. Peter King and Vito Fossella on the target list. I’m not entirely surprised; both of them represent districts that went strongly for Gore in 2000 and have Democratic leaning PVI’s. Still, King has been tested before and has always managed to prevail; Fossella faced his strongest challenge to date in 2006 and still won fairly handily. King is the last Republican from Long Island in Congress, and Fossella is the last one from New York City, so it would be delicious to see them go.

-Considering we gained 30 seats last cycle, including several in Republican leaning territory, I think it's remarkable that the "defense" list contains only 31 seats (including many which should, in all honesty, be pretty safe). I would, however, have expected Oregon's 5th District, a swing district which is currently home of the retiring Darlene Hooley, to have been on the "defense" list. I’m not sure why it wasn’t.

Still, one would expect that this would be the Republicans' opportunity to bounce back from a terrible 2006 cycle, but instead, we're on the offensive as much as we were in 2006, perhaps even more so. I'd be surprised if the Republicans were able to pick off more than a few of the DCCC's 31 defense seats, and if things stay as they are now, I'd expect us to more than balance that out with gains of our own.

Overall, I think this list indicates that the DCCC is spreading a wide net this cycle, that we're dreaming big, and that we're fighting the Republicans across the country (including in some Republican strongholds like WY-AL, OH-02 and CA-04). I'm pretty pleased with the list, and I'm excited about taking the fight to House Republicans.