I rarely make projections which is why I am going with a safe one. Tonight there will be a Dean surge in most of the tracking polls.
3 Day Trackers
The two major 3 day trackers (I'm addressing Gallup separately) are ARG and Zogby. Both had Dean's lowest days on Thursday. Here are the three day numbers for the current poll with solid numbers in bold (note that Thursdays numbers will not be in tonight/tomorrow's results.
TH FRI SAT
Zogby 21 22 25
ARG 13 16 23
So long as Dean doesn't have a surprisingly bad Sunday he'll see a surge in both tracking polls.
2 Day Trackers
Here I am looking at Suffolk and the Globe polls. Both have been all over the place. Dean had good Thursday in both polls (in contrast to the 3 day trackers) and bad days on Friday (again in contrast to the 3 day trackers). So in this case the Friday numbers will be lost on Sunday. Here are the 2-day rolling numbers.
TH FRI SAT
Suffolk 19 20 20
Globe 19 15 15
I believe it was the Thursday Suffolk that had Dean within 1 point of Kerry. And he increased on Friday with a bad day because he lost a bad Wednesday. Both of these polls have been up and down so they are fairly unreliable at this point. But I'm expecting at least a decent Sunday (although as I said they are unpredictable at this point). Since Dean had to have a good Saturday to maintain his numbers in both polls I expect that he did.
Gallup
I don't know what this is all about but Gallup switched from a 3 day poll to a 2 day poll on Saturday. So Dean had the biggest jump here (no surprise). They also are reporting a lot less detail on favorabilities.
TH FRI SAT
Gallup 22 23 25
Conclusion
I'm a Dean Supporter and my first focus is to see if Dean can gain momentum. A look at Kerry's potential for a drop may be equally important. I haven't taken that look yet. So this is a look at Dean's momentum and that is all it really tells. It doesn't project how he will do on Tuesday. But he will need momentum if he is to take second on Tuesday - or on the outside chance win (still unlikely at this point).
Dean has obviously gained momentum. Despite the large gaps between where ARG, Gallup, and Zogby have placed Dean over the past week they have shown the same trends. Dean started out strong in NH on Monday, declined rapidly to a low on Thursday, and has started a fairly rapid rebound since Thursday. And although I'm calling it a rebound I think it is only fair to say that the only thing Dean is guaranteed of at this point is stabilization. We cannot guarantee a rebound yet even though one does appear in the works.
I have no clue what Suffolk and Globe tell use beside that there is a huge gap between first and second. With both being only 2 day tracking polls I question why they call only 200 per day. The 3 day polls do 200 per day but the high MOE can be offset against the 3 day totals. High MOEs do not offset so well against 2 day totals so I'm not sure how reliable they are. My main reason for questioning them is that they show no trends. All of the other polls show consistent trends. Maybe there isn't a trend, but I doubt it.
Everyone knows that Zogby is suspect, ARG has miscalled the last few primaries in NH, and I'm sure there are obvious criticisms of Gallup (e.g. the switch from 3 day to 2 day). ARG did its own switching in sample size. They magnified the post Iowa swings by increasing their sample sizes on Tuesday and Wednesday. This fed into the Dean is dead views. But I really question this tact. Most people don't check sample size and I think we count on the notion that sample size and methodologies will be consistent across a polling period. Having a 3 day tracking where methodologies and sample sizes are different from day to day strikes me as inherently questionable. At the least it is something to keep an eye on post-Iowa.
I pretty much just felt like sharing my observations. They may be worthless. But all the indications are that Dean will get a poll surge tonight. The only thing that can affect this are the strange bounces evident in the Globe and Suffolk and the odd shift from a 3 day poll to a 2 day poll for Gallup.