The races for Governor are shaping up to be very entertaining over the next year. Democrats can take some joy in the Gubernatorial outlook. Of the 38 seats up for grabs in the next year, 24 of them are currently held by Republicans.
More significantly, Democrats have at least a pretty good chance to capture some of the 6 mega-states currently held by Republicans (California, New York, Florida, Texas, Massachusetts, and Ohio), representing nearly half of the American population. It is difficult to see any highly-populated states where Republicans can gain in the next election cycle. Overall, Democrats have a fair to good shot at taking over statehouses in Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and maybe Ohio and Hawaii. Republicans, on the other hand, have a decent shot at taking over only Iowa, Virginia, and maybe Kansas.
Partisan redistricting will likely keep the House of Representatives from undergoing a huge shift, even if this is an election season where the party in power typically undergoes losses. Senate contests are each unique and distorted by the effects of incumbency and spending. Currently Republicans have a slight advantage again going into next years Senate races. That leaves the Governorships, special offices where the winner gets to act as a "mini commander-in-chief" over their state and exerts considerable influence over everything from the types of laws and policies in the state, to the appointment of high ranking government officials and judges, to the manner in which elections are administered.
Following the 2004 races for Governor, the partisan balance was unchanged. Republicans maintained control of 28 state houses, while Democrats held on to 22. This year, a pair of off-year contests in New Jersey and Virginia will be the first two in a total of 38 races that will take place by the end of 2006.
2005: New Jersey and Virginia
In New Jersey, Governor Jim McGreevey has resigned, and in Virginia there is an odd single-term limit rule. Virginia's race features two candidates (Kilgore, a Republican and Kaine, a Democrat) already elected to statewide office, as well as a third, more moderate Republican. A recent poll had Kilogre with a slight lead. The outcome may depend on whether third candidate Potts pulls enough votes from the Republican or Democrat to influence the outcome.
The interim Democratic governor in New Jersey has opted not to run, U.S. Senator Jon Corzine (D) has already announced his intention to run, and Republicans have now settled on a nominee, Doug Forrester. A recent poll suggests that the Democrat has an advantage.
Outlook: New Jersey - Leans Democratic Retention
Outlook: Virginia - Toss-Up
Alaska 2006
In Alaska, one-term Republican Governor Frank Murkowski is very unpopular, despite his nearly twenty-two years in the U.S. Senate and easy victory for Governor in 2002. A boring personality, along with a lackluster economy and charges of nepotism, stemming from his appointment of his daughter Lisa Murkowski to succeed him in the Senate, makes him vulnerable. It is possible Gov. Murkowski may not even run for a second term.
If he does seek a second term, you can expect a GOP primary and then a free-for-all in November 2006. The Republican nature of Alaska may save him, but Alaskans have proven perfectly willing to have Democratic state chief executives in recent times. The Governorship is less ideological than the U.S. Senate or House.
Outlook: Leans Republican Retention
Florida 2006
Jeb Bush will likely finish his two terms as Governor of the Sunshine State with similar popularity to what he has had throughout his eight years, and that gives hope to Republicans. Either of two GOP contenders could end up as the nominee: state Attorney General Charlie Crist or state CFO Tom Gallagher, but Crist is the clear current frontrunner. There appear to be only two notable Democratic candidates: Congressman Jim Davis and state Democratic party Chairman Scott Maddox; better-known candidates such as 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Betty Castor and Lawton "Bud" Chiles III, son of the former Governor, are not running. Davis may now be the Democratic favorite, given Maddox's embarrassing public troubles with Democratic Party funding while he was the state chair.
Outlook: Leans Republican Retention
New York 2006
The twelve-year reign of Governor George Pataki (R), is coming to a close. Pataki has fallen into a deep pit of unpopularity and has decided not to run. Democrats will nominate state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, the Slayer of Wall Street Corruption. New York has become among the bluest of the Democratic Blue states. Governor Mario Cuomo (D) served three terms, and so has Pataki. Time's up. We'll predict on a victory for Eliot Spitzer, even though newly entered candidate William Weld is formidable politician.
Outlook: Leans Democratic Pickup
Ohio 2006
Republicans dominate the statewide picture in last year's ultimate swing state. Republicans have three strong candidates in Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (an African-American), State Auditor Betty Montgomery, and state Attorney General Jim Petro. A widening coin-gate scandal is hurting the Republican Party in Ohio. Current Governor Taft was just convicted of three ethics violations in criminal Court.
On the other side, Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland has decided to run for the gubernatorial nomination. Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman also is likely to run and he has shown great poise in dealing with the loss of soldiers recently from his city. Strickland, a psychologist by training and an energetic, bright House member, represents a moderate, rural-suburban district that has taught him how to win swing voters.
Outlook: Toss-Up
California 2006
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger used to be the GOP savior on the left coast, but he has had a huge recent decline among Democrats and Independents. Schwarzenegger has simply not worn well with Californians, and he is increasingly viewed as celebrity-lite and inadequate to the task at hand. This may be unfair and a product of the fickleness of Golden State voters. Nonetheless, he is no better than a slight favorite for reelection in 2006 as he seeks a full four-year term after his abbreviated, recall-generated three-year term.
Much will depend on the outcome of some state initiatives that Schwarzenegger is sponsoring in November 2005. A loss in these initiatives could potentially terminate Schwarzenegger. Democratic state treasurer Phil Angelides is the Governator's most likely Democratic opponent. The charisma-free Angelides has a real chance to polarize the California electorate along party lines; in a heavily Democratic state, that could produce an upset.
It is possible that State Controller Steve Westly, who is more charismatic than Angelides, might be chosen by the Democratic voters to face Schwarzenegger. Westly is clearly preparing to challenge Angelides for the Democratic nomination.
Outlook: Toss-Up
2006 Massachusetts
Strangely enough, Republicans have controlled the Governorship of the nation's most liberal state since 1991. The latest GOP Governor, Mitt Romney, is the unlikeliest of all, a Mormon and former resident of Utah. Despite social views that are culturally more conservative than most residents of the state, Romney won in 2002 for essentially the same reason his three immediate GOP predecessors had triumphed: voters were not impressed with the Democratic nominees. In Massachusetts, Democrats have virtually a one-party state legislature, and they have captured every single U.S. Senate and House seat--the largest totally Democratic delegation in the Congress.
Should Romney retire--as many suspect he will--his lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, will be the likely replacement for the GOP nomination. Democrats will likely nominate state Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly, who is moderate enough to be a real threat. Eventually, Massachusetts will revert to its roots and elect a Democrat for the chief-executive, so the GOP can take nothing for granted in 2006.
Outlook: Toss-up
2006 Iowa
Governor Tom Vilsack (D) means it when he says he is stopping at two terms, so the 2006 contest in this "Purple" state (a state closely divided between Republican voters and Democratic voters) will be extremely competitive.
The likely GOP nominee is well-known Congressman Jim Nussle. The Democratic nomination will either go to Secretary of State Chet Culver, son of a former Iowa U.S. senator or Mike Blouin, the just-retired director of the Iowa Department of Economic Development under Governor Vilsack. The November match-up will be hotly contested in this highly political state.
Outlook: Toss-up
Conclusion:
It is too early yet to tell the dynamics of most of the races. While the House and Senate races will be highly competitive and closely contested, the biggest potential shift in power appears to be in the 38 upcoming Governer's races. Democrats are in the enviable position of only having to defend 14 of the 38 contested seats, while Republicans must defend 24 seats (including 6 mega-state seats that represents almost half of the US population). That being said, it is likely that the balance of power, if not an outright majority of Governers, will shift toward the Democrats.
The two 2005 races are already becoming focal points for each party's national organizations this year, in hopes of building momentum to carry into the following year. Both 2005 races are seats currently held by Democrats. If the GOP wins one of these two races, they start off with a better prospect for maintaining a majority of Governorships after 2006. If the Democrats hold both seats in 2005, it becomes more likely that the balance of power, at the state chief executive level will shift back to Democrats.
This Weblog is cross-posted at AlphaLiberal.com.