It's times like this I want a chart on Kos.
If people want to know what has happened with the economy, there is a simple answer: we have now reached a permenantly lower level of employment, and a permenantly higher level of structural unemployment. It might get better from here - but only incrementally, until there is a basic change and committment to economic recovery.
How do I know this, oh let me count the ways... but one is the ratio between new unemployment claims and continuing claims.
Over the last 35 years, the ratio between the number of people filing unemployment claims, and the number of people unemployed drawing continuing claims has been a good indicator of the structural unemployment being created. The ration goes up during recessions, and then goes down again. One of the reasons there was such a perception of pain in the 1990's recovery is how slowly the ratio declined, in the end, the technique of putting more people on disability was taken to improve matters. In most times it wobbled between 6 and 7. That is between 6 and 7 people were drawing benefits for each person claiming new benefits.
With the recession year of 2001 - while Bush put in place a "save the rich, soak the rest" economic plan over a complacent congress - the ratio shot up to nearly 9 and has stayed around 8.5. This is the highest it has ever been, even in wake of the double dip recession of 1980, 1981-1982. This is the highest it has ever stayed. Only the long trough of the first Bush recession lasted longer.
In short, this number tells us that there is a significant overhang of labor supply, and that the economy is not in "recession" from a trend line, but that it has dropped to a lower level of demand. It further means taht current economic policies are not only not improving the economy - but that they are not creating incentives for business to lower structural unemployment, nor for individuals to seek new jobs and adapt to the new environment.
We are waiting for the Godot Recovery.
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The other number that tells me that this is the expansion from a base line is the successive incremental improvments in the yearly peak of unemployment - the "J" number, that week in January where seasonal Christmas layoffs have hit, and the winter has set in, so construction and other weather related employment is at its low. This spike is an excellent indicator of the coming job market - if it is lower, flat, or slightly higher than the previous year's J number, then the job market is not going to roll off a cliff. If it jumps up, it is a good sign that the next year will be the year where job losses hit.
This year showed a modest improvment in the J number, indiciating that the current rate of new hiring is normal for this economy - that there is no "rebound" year this time around.
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Where do things go from here?
The most likely occurance is a that the US keeps borrowing, hyperinflation strikes as the wolrd is flooded with dollars, and the economy tanks.
Another possible simple occurance is that next year an austerity budget is passed, and that futgure oblications - medicare and social security are gutted to buy about 10 years of lower interest rates. Shortly thereafterward, consumer spending tanks as people shift to speculation to make up the lost government income, there is a short stock bubble followed by a bust.
If these scenarios don't seem pleasant, then the time to push for alternatives is now.