There is a very interesting article in the
Washington Post about the reliability of polls in the NH primary.
I am kind of worried. With no Republican primary this year there should be much more independent voters casting their vote in the Democratic primary. According to the article that makes it even more questionable, how predictive the polls are.
On the other hand, all tracking polls seem to be very consistent. Moreover, Clarks weak performance in yesterday's debate and Dean's high negatives are also reassuring. And Kerry won the independent vote in Iowa.
It's just it all seems so unreal. I campaigned in Iowa and now I'm back in NH. Everyone knew that the campaign strategy was to exceed exspectations and comeback in Iowa to regain momentum in NH. I mean, we were already quite satisfied with the pre-caucus bounce and hoped for a few more percentage points post-caucus. But what happened since Monday can hardly be called a bounce anymore. This is a miracle. From 20 points behind to a 10 points lead in just 2 weeks. It just feels so unreal. I mean, all these endorsements coming in, money coming in, new volunteers joining the fight, more and more voters coming to the chilli feeds and the Senator getting better everyday, I mean all of the sudden he really connects and people love him. It's so surreal. I guess after the last 6 months I am just not used to good news anymore.
Still, I am very sceptical. Somehow I am afraid we could be up for a big bad surprise on tuesday. What do you think? How reliable are the polls? Can Dean come back? Considering the mounting exspectations we would be finished if we came in second. But if we somehow held on to this 10 point lead it would be over for the Governor, at least in my opinion. Not the worst way to go into Feb 3. We'll see.