I have a subscription to www.stratfor.com it gives some rather interesting insights
Iraqi Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani on Jan. 16 threatened civil unrest and possible armed confrontation with the occupation forces unless the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority heeds his demands for direct elections to establish the new transitional authority. Al-Sistani's hardened stance will likely force the U.S. to delay the transfer of sovereignty, currently scheduled for June 30. The threat underscores the uneasy relationship between Washington and the Iraqi Shiites.
Until Jan. 11, all seemed to be going well between al-Sistani and the U.S.-led CPA. The ayatollah is the single Iraqi Shiite leader who commands widespread support among the otherwise factional Shiite community in Iraq. Unlike his co-religionists in neighboring Iran, 73-year-old al-Sistani does not believe that the ulema (clerics) should play an active role in politics. Trained in the "quietist school" of Grand Ayatollah Abdul Qasim al-Khoei, whom he succeeded in 1992 upon the latter's death, al-Sistani has maintained an indirect leverage over the development of the post-Hussein Iraqi republic.
Al-Sistani understood that if the Shiites played their cards well, they have the numbers (some 60 percent of Iraqis are Shiites) where the U.S. plans to democratize would work in their favor. This is why when the U.S.-led coalition forces invaded Iraq in March, al-Sistani advised Iraqi Shiites to remain aloof, thus earning him negotiating space with the coalition. The only foreigner he has met with was then-U.N. envoy Sergio Vieira de Mello; that sole meeting is an indicator of his personal disengagement from active politics. During that June 2003 meeting, al-Sistani apprised de Mello of his opposition to the coalition's plans to draft a constitution, saying only the elected representatives of the Iraqi people had the right to do so.
The level of respect al-Sistani commands is such that the CPA administrator Paul Bremer, whom al-Sistani consistently has refused to meet, had to yield to his demand in a Nov. 15 agreement concerning the transfer of power. It was agreed upon that Iraq?s new constitution would be drafted by Iraqis. The original plan did not provide that Iraq's constitution be drafted by Iraqis -- Bremer conceded to that demand. But the new arrangement did not concede to another al-Sistani demand: that those Iraqis be elected. Al-Sistani immediately struck back, criticized this aspect, reiterated his demand for elections and angrily noted that Islam was not accorded a key place in the new basic law. Since then, the CPA, through the IGC's Shiite and other members, has been trying to get al-Sistani to see things its way.
Sensing that the United States was not taking his demand seriously, al-Sistani issued a statement Jan. 11 rejecting the CPA's transition plans and called for democratic elections to install the transitional government. The next day, his supporters took out an ad in the Iraqi newspaper al-Zaman reiterating the demand. The CPA, including Bremer himself, followed this with requests that the IGC adhere to the Nov. 15 agreement, claiming that elections are not currently feasible, which prompted al-Sistani's threat.
In the wake of al-Sistani's threat, Washington has hinted at a compromise, and Bremer has traveled with IGC head Adnan Pachachi to meet with United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan. This indicates that the United States -- while not wanting to appear to be bending backward to please the Ayatollah -- is ready to revise its plans. Al-Sistani repeatedly has called upon the United Nations to aid in holding elections. Stratfor has maintained since May that the United States would not want an uprising from the southern Shiites. In fact, it is easier for Washington to deal with Sunni guerrilla insurgency in central Iraq than with one called by al-Sistani. Interestingly, since al-Sistani assumed center stage in this row, there have been no statements from either the main Shiite party, the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) or Jama'at al-Sadr al-Thani, led by the firebrand Muqtada al-Sadr. Washington understands that al-Sistani wields ultimate authority among Iraqi Shiites.
Al-Sistani is on the offensive because the Americans have placated him on previous occasions. Though the exact outcome of this tussle remains uncertain, it is clear that the CPA will be forced to deal with al-Sistani.