Are we, the bloggers, that bad at math?
The Kos "Final Iowa Polls" has, I believe, bad averages posted at the top. Unfortunately, Dean does not lead with 27%.
The position of the candidates varies with each poll, depending where they place.
Let me see if I can do this correctly - please feel free to bust me if I am a moron:
Kerry - 25,21,26,21,34 = 25.4%
Dean - 22,24,20,22,28 = 23.2%
Edwards - 21,22,23,18,21 = 21%
Gephardt - 18,20,18,18,17 = 18.2%
Note this is very similar to Zogby's numbers of today, which makes me believe we may actually have a reliable poll of the field. Of course, polls only count for so much at the Iowa caucuses. But I think we can logically do some close predicting of the final tallies.
Alright, follow me:
Lets add or subtract from the score based on reports of organization of the campaigns:
Kerry: 25.4% - 1% (for late organization) = 24.4%
Dean: 23.2% + 5% (The 5% bump we have written about has always sounded about right) =
28.2%
Edwards: 21% - 2% (Late and disorganized) = 19%
Gephardt: 18.2% + 2% (Erroding union support) = 20.2%
But when adding theses totals, 24.4+28.2+19+20.2 = 91.8, we are still missing are certain percentage of voters.
What about the last 8.2%?
From Zogby's list of secondary candidates choices I think we can see where people are leaning. (Kerry 25%, Edwards 21%, Gephardt 15%, and Dean 13%.)
So split up the last eight points like this: Kerry 3%, Edwards 2%, Gephardt 2%, Dean 1%.
Now we have a total:
Dean - 29.2%
Kerry - 27.4%
Gephardt - 22.2%
Edwards - 21%
Please review my math - because I believe this caucus will be tight.