House and Senate Roundup, 7/2

NH-Sen: The Concord Monitor analyzes the differences between the 2008 Senate race between Jeanne Shaheen and John Sununu, and their previous match in 2002, when Sununu won a narrow victory.

Shaheen seems to think that the critical factor in the race is Sununu himself, and the record of failure he has compiled in his Senate term.

"This race is going to be about Jeanne Shaheen, but it's going to be about John Sununu," Shaheen, a former three-term Democratic governor, said in a meeting with Monitor editors and reporters last week. "This is about what he's done - or failed to do - over the last six years."

Shaheen chalks her 2002 loss up to "the environment we were in." Asked what's different this time around, Shaheen said: "This time I'm going to win."

Pithy, and accurate, given her substantial polling edge over the incumbent.

"I think this race is about the future of this country and the Senate. John Sununu wasn't running as an incumbent senator in 2002," Shaheen said. "He's running as an incumbent senator now, an incumbent senator who voted with this administration 90 percent of the time and got us to where we are today: with $9 trillion in debt, a war in Iraq with no end, a housing crisis, gas prices that are the highest in history, and no energy plan. . . . We need a dramatic change, and we are not going to get it with somebody who votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time."

Sununu's campaign didn't dispute the 90 percent figure but offered a statistic of its own.

"Senator Sununu has been an independent voice in the Senate and voted with New Hampshire 100 percent of the time," spokeswoman Julie Teer said in a prepared statement.

Sununu's been using that silly line for a while, it seems; it makes Dean Barker at Blue Hampshire chuckle.  

It's settled - I think I can vote for Sununu. He's voted for our state 100% of the time! That's one more time than every time he voted with Mr. Bush! "Statistics" are so much fun!

ME-Sen: Apparently, this is how Susan Collins maintains her popularity in Maine: by concealing her actual record in the Senate from her constituents.

MS-Sen: Our beloved Decider is in Jackson, Mississippi today, holding a high-dollar fundraiser for Roger Wicker. Apparently, despite his party having lost his old seat in Congress in part due to Bush's unpopularity, Wicker is unconcerned about wearing Bush as a millstone around his neck.

"Sen. Roger Wicker is honored to have President Bush to Mississippi to support his campaign," Wicker campaign manager Austin Barbour said in a news release. "President Bush has offered America strong leadership in a unique moment of danger in our history."

So what does Wicker's opponent, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, have to say about this event?

Musgrove's campaign has called out Wicker for holding a limited-access event instead of participating in a series of several town hall meetings - the first of which Musgrove wanted to have today.

"It's a disservice to Mississippians that Roger Wicker would choose to attend a high-dollar fundraiser rather than participate in a town hall meeting in front of voters," Musgrove campaign spokesman Adam Bozzi said.

MA-Sen: John Kerry is cruising in the Bay State, 58% to 27%, over his Republican opponent Jeff Beatty.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama leads John McCain 53% to 33%.

- Members of the American Medical Association are just beside themselves with rage over several Republican Senators' opposition to the recent Medicare bill.

Medical groups around the country are gearing up to target these bad seeds in several states. In Texas, John Cornyn has already been targeted, while other groups eye John Sununu in New Hampshire, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, and James Inhofe in Oklahoma.

Medical societies in Texas, Mississippi and New Hampshire — states where GOP senators face difficult reelection challenges this year — are taking a hard look at whether to withhold their support for incumbents who voted against the bill on June 26. One state group has already acted and others could follow, given the American Medical Association’s (AMA) vehemence on the vote.  

This could be considered a major screwup for several of these Senators. In Sununu's case:

The New Hampshire group is especially piqued, Jones said, because Sununu personally assured them the cut would be prevented, as did aides to Gregg. "We all felt comfortable with the fact that they said, ‘We understand your concerns and we will not let a cut occur,’ " Jones said.

As for Inhofe, well, he's doing the only thing he knows how to do: blame Democrats.

Tulsa-area doctors are wondering if this might be the first year since 2002 that Congress won't intervene to avoid a cut to Medicare payments to doctors, since lawmakers failed to pass legislation before leaving for their July Fourth recess.

The Bush administration said Monday it will delay Medicare payments to doctors for 10 business days to give Congress time to reach a deal to block the cut.

...

Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., insisted Senate Democrats were to blame.

"Despite knowing that their bill was doomed from the start, Democrats still refused to allow consideration of a Republican alternative," Inhofe said. "Both bills provide the same update to physicians, a 0.5 percent increase for this year and a 1.1 percent increase for 2009."

Gee, I was under the impression that voting to block the bill was his decision. But that's me.

House Races

NY-13: Due to the rather unbelievable circumstances surrounding this seat - not only the highly publicized demise of Rep. Vito Fossella, but the GOP's quixotic search for a candidate afterwards - CQ Politics has moved their ranking of this seat to "Democrat Favored".

Brooklyn political consultant Gerry O’Brien, who works with clients from both major parties, said Republicans’ recruiting problems all but assured Democrats would win the 13th District in November.

"It’s flabbergasting. That’s the only word I can think of. It is as if they seem intent on serving this seat up to Democrats on a silver platter with chocolate mints around the edge," O’Brien said.

I like chocolate mints. Ours is a good way.

VA-05: Showing surprising strength in a long-shot battle to unseat infamous Republican Virgil Goode, Tom Perriello has brought in an impressive amount of money in the second-quarter period.

Attorney Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee in Virginia’s 5th district race against Rep. Virgil Goode (R), raised more than $300,000 in the second quarter of the year and will report more than $900,000 in total cash raised for the cycle in his next Federal Election Commission report, according to a news release issued by his campaign this week.

Democrats are starting to believe that Perriello has an outside chance of ousting Goode, a six-term incumbent who has never had to sweat re-election.

In the release, the campaign boasted that Perriello has refused all contributions from corporate political action committees and lobbyists and said that 96 percent of donations have come from individuals.

KY-04: This seat hasn't been on the radar up to this point, and with good reason, but this is a very interesting poll from SUSA, pitting incumbent Geoff Davis against underfunded, no-name Democratic challenger Michael Kelley:

Davis  (R) 54
Kelley (D) 43

This was one of the hottest races of the cycle in 2006, but turned out to be a real dud in the end. Former Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas had narrowly defeated Davis in 2002, then retired in accordance with his term-limits pledge in 2004. Davis won the seat, beating Democrat Nick Clooney, and Lucas subsequently ran for his old seat again in 2006.

There was a lot of hype around this race, but Davis wound up beating Lucas badly, 52% to 43%.

I seriously doubt there's much chance of a pickup here, but it's nice to see relatively weak reelect numbers even in theoretically safe Republican seats.

MO-06: Sam Graves really is full of it, when it comes to the GOP's Great White Lie regarding offshore drilling.

It’s an urban legend that’s easy to believe for some Americans.

In early June, Vice President Dick Cheney told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that China was pumping oil from the Gulf of Mexico.

"...George Will pointed out in his column the other day that oil is being drilled right now 60 miles off the coast of Florida," Cheney said. "But we’re not doing it, the Chinese are, in cooperation with the Cuban government. Even the communists have figured out that a good answer to high prices is more supply."

Similar assertions have been made by other elected officials who, like Cheney, support more offshore drilling. They include U.S. representatives Sam Graves and Roy Blunt of Missouri, George Radanovich of California, and John Boehner of Ohio. All are Republicans.

Here’s the problem with their claims: China is not drilling for oil off Cuba, according to independent energy experts. Cheney’s office has since acknowledged this.

According to these stellar GOP representatives, if you repeat lies often enough, they become truth.

Nice to see Graves, in particular, called out by his local paper, though.