Presidential Polls, 7/31

Florida

Quinnipiac. 7/23-29. Likely voters. MoE 2.8% (6/19-16 results)

McCain (R) 44 (43)
Obama (D) 46 (47)

Woah, with this poll, Obama has actually edged into the tightest of "leads" in Florida in the Pollster.com composite: Obama 45.7, McCain, 45.3. Check out the trend graph:

Much of that Obama competitiveness is being fueled by massive ad spending in the state:

TV ad spending in Florida, June 3rd through July 25.

McCain: $0
Obama:  $5.028 million

The McCain camp probably hoped they could assume Florida in their column. Quite clearly, they won't have that luxury.

Montana

Rasmussen. 7/29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/1 results)

McCain (R) 45 (43)
Obama (D) 44 (48)

A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.

The state is really volatile, or Rasmussen is having a hard time getting a consistent sample. Note that when leaners are included, it's tied 47-47. The composite right now is Obama 48.3, McCain 45.2.

Ohio

Quinnipiac. 7/23-29. Likely voters. MoE 2.8% (6/19-16 results)

McCain (R) 44 (42)
Obama (D) 46 (48)

The composite score is still pretty tight in Ohio: Obama 46.1, McCain 42.5. Obama has the advantage, but its nothing to get comfortable over. Both campaigns have spent about equal amounts on the state:

TV ad spending in Ohio, June 3rd through July 25.

McCain: $2.568 million
Obama:  $2.486 million

The McCain camp has actually outspent Obama by $82,000 in the state.

Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac. 7/23-29. Likely voters. MoE 2.8% (6/19-16 results)

McCain (R) 42 (40)
Obama (D) 49 (52)

Strategic Vision (R). 7/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 3% (4/18-20 results)

McCain (R) 40 (40)
Obama (D) 49 (48)

The spread in Pennsylvania remains large -- Obama 49.7, McCain 40.6. Given the state's history, no one wants to let their guard down, but so far, this is far less competitive than in recent years. And to think that McCain has outspent Obama by a significant number ($665,000) on the air in recent weeks:

TV ad spending in Pennsylvania, June 3rd through July 25.

McCain: $4.602 million
Obama:  $3.937 million

Also:
California (PDF): PPI, Obama 50, McCain 35
Texas: Rasmussen, McCain 50, Obama 41.
Washington: Strategic Vision (R), Obama 48, McCain 37