Gallup: McCain Continues Strong In the South, But Nowhere Else

Well, this is interesting. While the Gallup does its periodic undulation (McCain and Obama are now tied at 44%), the site also breaks down particulars.

For example:

Candidate Support by "Red," "Purple," and "Blue" States

Aug 4-10 (last week)                 Obama      McCain
Red states                  40 (41)   49 (48)
battleground/purple states  47 (46)   41 (42)
Blue states                 54 (49)   35 (39)

and the fascinating

Candidate Support by Region

Aug 4-10 (last week)          Obama      McCain
East                   51 (46)   38 (41)
Midwest                50 (46)   38 (42)
South                  40 (42)   50 (48)
West                   50 (47)   40 (42)

Looking at those numbers, again through Aug 10 (five days ago), you might get the impression that McCain's strength in the South obscures his problems in the Midwest, East and West. Now, the West might be dominated by CA, and the East skewed by NY/NJ/CT, but the numbers certainly highlight the importance of the electoral college race (Obama has 284 at pollster.com today, not counting toss-ups, while at fivethirtyeight.com Obama is at 288 predicted for November.)

Tight, but not even, and certainly not radically changed from the last several weeks. Though everyone (including me) sees slight improvement for McCain, he never seems to break 44% (the South can only help him so much and no more.) So, it appears we are frozen until the conventions and maybe even right through the VP choices. That's not the first time we've noted that.

Take some time to delve into the "key indicators" Gallup provides (scroll down). Some of those numbers seem pretty stable, though Obama is doing better over time among women, and McCain among men. This has nothing to do with optimism or pessimism - the numbers are the numbers. And if you want a rough thumbnail to compare to Bush-Kerry, go here.