MN-Sen: Coleman's lead cut in half, per SUSA

Up to this point, polling results on the Minnesota Senate race over the past several months had fallen into two categories:

1. Rasmussen polling, and

2. everybody else's polling.

Rasmussen has consistently been the most favorable to DFL and Orange to Blue candidate Al Franken, showing a consistent 2-3 point race with incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman. In several polls, Franken actually showed a small lead.

Other pollsters, however, such as SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac, had shown the race in something of a holding pattern, with Coleman enjoying a consistent double-digit lead.

SUSA's most recent poll, however, has broken the cycle.

SurveyUSA. 8/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (7/11-13 results)

Coleman (R) 46 (52)
Franken (D) 39 (39)

SurveyUSA has not seen Franken's own numbers change much since their February poll, when he drew 46% support. Other than that, he has fluctuated between 39% and 41% support, as he does now.

Coleman, on the other hand, has shown a significant drop for the first time in SUSA's polling.

The other most recent poll on this race comes from Rasmussen, and it is in line with the rest of their Minnesota polling. It shows the two candidates tied at 45%, with Coleman leading 49-46 with leaners included. Coleman is actually gaining in that poll; the numbers were reversed in July.

So does this SUSA poll - the first one to really break a trend - indicate a tightening race? It's possible. Over the last month, Franken has shaken up his campaign staff, released a few strong ads, and hopefully dealt with the "back taxes" flap once and for all. Meanwhile, Coleman himself has taken heat over a sweetheart deal he received on his DC apartment, a deal potentially in violation of Senate ethics rules.

This poll - and the seven-point gap it shows - is directly in line with Pollster's average, which also indicates a seven-point Coleman lead (50% to 43%, on average).

If that is accurate, and Coleman's edge is in high single digits, this is still a very competitive race. With Coleman and Franken both exceptional fundraisers, there is still a lot of money to be spent on this race and a lot of ads yet to be aired. It is also still unclear how dramatic an effect the presidential race will have downticket in Minnesota.

It's been a long time coming, but a pollster other than Rasmussen now gives Democrats reason for optimism in Minnesota.

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