Tracking Polls and Interviews Suggest a Difference Between Liking Sarah Palin And Voting For Her

Americans take their respect for the office of the President seriously. That respect influences how they vote.

From WSJ:

Yet her excitement will not necessarily translate into a vote for the Republican ticket. Ms. Kidder, who also calls herself independent, is also leaning toward Sen. Obama because of his economic promises and his call to end the war in Iraq -- here her oldest son is now serving in the military. "It's a great choice for McCain," she said, "but I have never been a single-issue voter."

That reaction may be typical among women voters, said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster.

In fact, what we know is that the VP choices are not driving the process. Tody's morning Rasmussen tracker has it Obama 50, McCain 45%

With the two conventions back-to-back, the two Vice-Presidential picks so close together, and Hurricane Gustav in the middle, it’s difficult to put the convention bounces in context. Both Obama and McCain lost a little ground in the polls after announcing their Vice President running mate. Obama lost three points after the Joe Biden selection was announced and McCain lost two points after Palin was announced.

Obama then enjoyed a fairly typical bounce from his convention and it remains to be seen how what kind of bounce McCain will get.

It's way early, and never appropriate to confuse polls with predictions, but not too early to look for movement in polls based on 5 days of discussion and soap opera.

From Gallup:

An update on gender differences in white voters' presidential vote shows that Barack Obama's gains vis-à-vis John McCain in the days since the Democratic National Convention have come among independents and Democrats of both genders, but that McCain has actually gained slightly among Republican women. The preferences of Republican men have not changed.

Democrats and independents for Obama and Republican women for McCain? Hmmmm. Let's not confuse data with breathless reports of how the GOP delegates and surrogates are reacting to Fred Thompson's coughing. Sarah Palin's speech, by all descriptions likely to be excellent and certainly well received, nonetheless may or may not attract votes.