If you've been living under a rock, you may not know that Rodney Alexander, representative for Louisiana's 5th District,
has turned Republican on the last day to file for election, leaving Democrats with only a few very surprised candidates. Alexander probably just threw his Congressional career out the window...
The
5th District is a conglomeration of 22 Parishes. As a whole it is relatively
rural, but agriculture, away from the River, is not as
big as one would think. The populace is
not well to do and has a
disproportionate number of mobile homes. Seniors form
an appreciable number of the electorate. Take an
overhead look, and connect names with Parishes through use of this
overlay.
I have grouped, for the sake of analysis, the Parishes into three groups with populations and white-to-black ratios given for each.
The Baptist Parishes just recently did away with Blue Laws, though I'm sure some are still in effect somewhere:
Caldwell Parish 10,560 9/2
West Carroll Parish 12,314 4/1
Catahoula Parish 10,920 3/1
Franklin Parish 21,263 2/1
Jackson Parish 15,397 3/1
La Salle Parish 14,282 6/1
Winn Parish 16,894 2/1
Lincoln Parish 42,509 4/3
Union Parish 22,803 8/3
Ouachita Parish 147,250 2/1
The Coonass Parishes have a French heritage, concentrated in Avoyelles Parish, and Cajuns help round off the ancestry oleo:
Allen Parish 25,440 3/1
Avoyelles Parish 41,481 2/1
Evangeline Parish 35,434 3/1
Pointe Coupee Parish 22,763 2/1
Iberville Parish 33,320 1/1
Rapides Parish 126,337 2/1
The River Parishes are the poorest of all Louisianans, have the highest concentration of blacks, and the largest farms in the State:
Concordia Parish 20,247 4/3
East Carroll Parish 9,421 1/2
Tensas Parish 6,618 3/4
Madison Parish 13,728 5/8
Morehouse Parish 31,021 1/1
Richland Parish 20,981 3/2
George W. Bush carried all of the 5th District in 2000, with the exception of its heartiest Democratic Parishes.
The Baptist Parishes all came through for GWB, and it wasn't even close:
Caldwell Parish 1,359 2,817
West Carroll Parish 1,319 3,220
Catahoula Parish 1,718 2,912
Franklin Parish 2,792 5,363
Jackson Parish 2,582 4,347
La Salle Parish 1,397 4,564
Winn Parish 2,167 4,028
Lincoln Parish 6,851 9,246
Union Parish 3,205 5,772
Ouachita Parish 21,457 35,107
The Coonass Parishes all delivered for GWB, with the exception of Pointe Coupee and Iberville, only parts of which encroach into the 5th District:
Allen Parish 3,914 4,035
Avoyelles Parish 6,701 7,329
Evangeline Parish 5,763 7,290
Pointe Coupee Parish 5,813 4,710
Iberville Parish 8,355 5,573
Rapides Parish 18,898 28,831
The River Parishes, even majority-black Tensas Parish, went for Bush with only two exceptions:
Concordia Parish 3,569 4,627
East Carroll Parish 1,876 1,280
Tensas Parish 1,580 1,330
Madison Parish 2,489 2,127
Morehouse Parish 5,289 6,641
Richland Parish 3,282 4,895
In 2002, the Senatorial Election let us know an idea of what the District thought of Bush's first term, and it wasn't positive for the incumbent. The first column is for Landrieu (D), second column for Terrell (R).
The Baptist Parishes turned in smaller margins of victory and Catahoula Parish even turned:
Caldwell Parish 1,237 1,635
West Carroll Parish 1,135 2,028
Catahoula Parish 1,600 1,410
Franklin Parish 2,604 3,150
Jackson Parish 2,691 2,786
La Salle Parish 1,253 2,530
Winn Parish 2,038 2,247
Lincoln Parish 5,305 6,327
Union Parish 2,714 4,181
Ouachita Parish 17,330 24,450
The Coonass Parishes all deliver for Senator Landrieu, with the expection of populous Alexandria and Rapides Parish:
Allen Parish 3,111 2,201
Avoyelles Parish 6,464 4,897
Evangeline Parish 4,740 4,563
Pointe Coupee Parish 4,977 2,998
Iberville Parish 7,390 3,431
Rapides Parish 15,346 17,983
The River Parishes turned in near-unanimous Landrieu victories with the exception of Richland Parish:
Concordia Parish 2,853 2,491
East Carroll Parish 1,360 801
Tensas Parish 1,270 847
Madison Parish 1,759 1,333
Morehouse Parish 4,009 3,974
Richland Parish 2,680 3,368
The 2003 Gubernatorial provides the most recent evidence of Republican antipathy. The first column is for Blanco (D), second column for Jindal (R).
Blanco performed very well in the rural Baptist Parishes, capturing them all in stark contrast to the 2000 Presidential:
Caldwell Parish 2,485 1,346
West Carroll Parish 2,429 1,950
Catahoula Parish 2,429 1,010
Franklin Parish 4,038 2,541
Jackson Parish 3,592 2,717
La Salle Parish 2,974 1,917
with the effect tapering off, yet still effective and appreciable enough for victory throughout the region, with the exception of Ouachita (Note: Jindal was not a white candidate, and this fact, given the low Republican turnout in comparison to the 2000 Presidential, looks to have played a key role - note that otherwise turnout for the 2003 Gubenatorial looked to be on par with the 2000 Presidential):
Winn Parish 3,045 1,908
Lincoln Parish 5,680 5,194
Union Parish 3,612 3,501
Ouachita Parish 20,194 22,491
The Coonass Parishes were much more emphatic in washing their hands of the Republican candidate (Note: Blanco is a Coonass):
Allen Parish 4,502 2,109
Avoyelles Parish 8,331 3,395
Evangeline Parish 7,949 3,442
Pointe Coupee Parish 6,098 3,351
Iberville Parish 8,499 4,240
Rapides Parish 20,875 16,192
The River Parishes delivered, though without the angry margins attained in the Coonass areas.
Concordia Parish 5,554 3,119
East Carroll Parish 1,573 696
Tensas Parish 2,038 919
Madison Parish 2,747 948
Morehouse Parish 4,917 3,594
Richland Parish 3,731 2,773
I believe these strong trends, albeit generated in less than laboratory conditions, indicate a strong Bush loss in the 5th District come November and I believe any Congressman with an (R) next to his name on that ticket does so at his own peril.