Democrats always act weak and afraid, even when they sit in dominant position. Republicans, are the opposite -- always talking like they own the world, even if the world flips them the bird in response.
Some House Republicans are boasting about their chances of regaining control of the House in 2010 and relegating Democrats led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to minority status for the second half of President Obama’s term.
"I have no doubt that we will," said Representative Tom Price, the Georgia Republican who leads the conservative Republican Study Committee. "The American people want checks and balances, and the way to do that is to put Republicans back in charge."
Publicly and privately, Republicans have been upbeat about the midterm outlook, saying voter unrest demonstrated at meetings this summer coupled with strong candidate recruitment have them highly optimistic about capturing 40 or more Democratic seats and resuming command of the House. They are talking confidently about knocking off such old bulls as Representatives David R. Obey of Wisconsin and Ike Skelton of Missouri, the chairmen of the Appropriations and Armed Services Committees.
"In terms of candidate recruitment, fund-raising and issue development, we are far ahead of where we were at this point in 1993 — and you remember what happened in 1994," Representative Pete Sessions, the Texan who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, told the conservative Web site Human Events. Mr. Sessions, of course, was referring to the election that swept Republicans into the House majority after four decades in minority exile.
Now it's obvious that Republicans have had some success in dragging down Democratic favorabilities. Heck, some of that the Democrats have done to themselves. The GOP's problem is that they've done nothing to improve their own standing.
From the weekly Research 2000/Daily Kos poll, here's net party favorability:
Democrats are down 24 points from the beginning of the year. Republicans are down 16 points, and they had far less ground to fall. Even today, the Republican Party is a net 34 points more unpopular than the Democratic Party (minus 10 compared to minus 44).
What about Congressional caucuses?
The Democrats are nearly steady from the beginning of the year, down just one point. Congressional Republicans are down 12 points.
More polls:
- Quinnipiac pegs support for Congressional Republicans at 25-64 -- down from 30-58 in late February.
- Pew has support Congressional Republicans at 24-60 -- down from 34-51 in early February.
- Gallup has support for Congressional Republicans at 27-70 -- down from 36-56 in late February.
Those are not ratings that suggest Republicans are winning the battle of ideas.
How about the generic congressional ballot?
Aha! Finally evidence that the Democrats are slipping, with Dems dropping eight points from 42 to 34 percent support since we first started asking this question in May. But what about the Republicans? Take out those minor gains and losses as statistical noise, and they've pretty much stayed at their floor in the 27-30 percent range. In fact, they have yet to crack 30 percent in this question.
Gallup had Republicans at 40 percent in January, 44 percent in early October. In that time span, Democrats have gone from 53 percent to 46 percent. It's not an apples to apples comparison with our poll because we didn't start polling until May, but Gallup did poll in July, and the results? 44 percent, same as today. So even in Gallup, as of mid-year, Republicans have gained little. It's the Democrats who are seeing their support crumble.
It's a dynamic that we see in pretty much every poll. One more -- In mid-September, a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had Democrats leading 43-40 in the generic congressional ballot. In April, it was 48-39. Dems have fallen, Republicans remain static. There is one exception -- Rasmussen, which claims Republicans have gained eight points in support since April, going from trailing Democrats 45-35, to leading them 43-39 today. No other pollster has arrived at similar numbers yet, and as such, Rasmussen remains the outlier.
So what does it mean? It certainly doesn't mean that Republicans are making gains at the Democrats' expense, because quite simply, Republicans aren't making any gains. Their approval ratings are dropping, while their generic electoral chances have remained steady. Meanwhile, Democrats are slipping, both in approval ratings and in their electoral chances.
Given the GOP's inability to raise their levels of approval or support, it's clear that they've done nothing to sell their agenda to the American people beyond their core base of supports. The Democrats are suffering from self-inflicted wounds, most likely their (to this point) inability to deliver on campaign promises to deliver real change -- in health care, climate policy, the economy, and the wars. Democrats benefited from discontent with GOP policies, and won big promising "change". But except for a few minor edits at the margins, those promises remain thus far unfulfilled nine months into the Democrats' control of the White House and Congress.
And with dominant majorities in both chambers of Congress, Democrats have no one to blame for their current failures than themselves. Despite the most fervent wishes of the right-leaning Beltway Media, the GOP should be irrelevant, but they have been inexplicably empowered by the Senate leadership and White House.
But we're seeing signs that Democrats see their window of opportunity closing, and appear to be moving more aggressively toward delivering on their campaign promises.
To reiterate, nothing in the numbers suggests that Republicans are gaining support or winning the message battle. They are doing neither. It's the Democrats who are bleeding support, as former supporters become increasingly disenchanted with the lack of progress. Democrats can turn that perception around, but they are running out of time.