Brutal.
Only 31 percent of Pennsylvania voters believe Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter should be re-elected, and 59 percent believe it's time to give someone else a chance, a state poll released today shows.
Specter's numbers are "staggering," said pollster Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research. An incumbent typically is vulnerable if fewer than 40 percent approve of his or her re-election, Lee said. The poll of 700 registered voters, conducted Oct. 7-12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
"When I see a re-elect in the low 30s, that's ... near fatal," Lee said.
A Susquehanna Poll in February found 38 percent of Pennsylvanians believed Specter deserved to be re-elected.
Specter, 79, of Philadelphia holds a 44-16 percent lead over Rep. Joe Sestak, his challenger in the 2010 primary, with 22 percent of voters undecided.
This was a poll of registered voters. Rasmussen just got done polling the race, and targeted "likely" voters:
So much for Arlen Specter’s party switch to avoid a risky primary. The incumbent Pennsylvania senator’s 2010 Democratic Primary race against challenger Joe Sestakis now a toss-up.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Democratic Primary voters in the state finds Specter with just a four-point lead over Sestak – 46% to 42%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.
I don't know if Ras' turn to wingnutia has affected their basic election polling yet, but these numbers are so shocking I have a hard time believing them. Still, the exact margin is irrelevant today. The election isn't until mid-next year. Fact is, poll after poll shows Sestak closing the gap, while still suffering from low name ID. The more people learn Sestak exists, the better he does. Here are Ras' trends:
In early August, Specter had a 13-point lead over the two-term congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs. In June, Sestak trailed by 19 points.
There's little hope for Specter. It's not just the trends, but the underlying cause of those trends -- voters don't trust Specter. And while he may be voting perfectly right now (anyone want to challenge Blanche Lincoln?), I doubt anyone believes he'll be as reliable if survives reelection. And all the money, and Obama fundraisers ($1 million last week), and White House love ain't gonna change that simple fact.
p.s. Ned Lamont will be endorsing Sestak on Monday.