Lots of fresh polling numbers to digest on this Tuesday evening, but don't try to make any broad generalizations based on the data--for Democrats, you will find highs, lows, and all points in-between from this set of electoral surveys.
NJ-Gov: Monmouth Poll Latest To Take Lead Away From GOP's Christie
Earlier in the month, in the poll conducted by Monmouth University and sponsored by Gannett, Chris Christie was still clinging to a lead of three points in his bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine. That lead is now officially gone (PDF file). Monmouth now has the two major-party candidates tied at 39%, with Independent Chris Daggett sitting at 14% of the vote. Daggett is the big winner over the course of the month, picking up several points. What is notable for Christie is that he shed 4% of his support from early October, while Corzine's numbers shifted only a point. A big part of this has been due to base movement, with Christie losing Republicans to Daggett, while Corzine is beginning to consolidate his base a bit better (in August, Christie was getting 17% of the Democratic vote. Now, it is just 8%). Late in the afternoon, Rasmussen chimed in, as well. Like every other pollster, they have Christie losing ground. After having the Republican up by four last week (45-41-11), they have Christie up by just two (41-39-11) this week. Interestingly, Rasmussen might have used a little sleight of hand to keep Christie in the lead. Their initial numbers put Corzine out in front narrowly (37-36-16). Then then pressed the Daggett voters on the certainty of their vote, and pressed undecideds on where they were leaning. This, evidently, is how they arrived at the two-point Christie lead.
VA-Gov: New Clarus Poll Has McDonnell Leading By Eight Points
A new poll from the fledgling Clarus Research Group falls in line with what most other pollsters are finding in this contest--state Attorney General Bob McDonnell in the lead by high single digits. In this case, it is an eight-point advantage for the Republican over Democrat Creigh Deeds (49-41). Democrats also struggle downballot as well, with incumbent Lt. Governor Bill Bolling leading Democrat Jody Wagner by seven (42-35), and archconservative Ken Cuccinelli still holding a lead over Democrat Steve Shannon in the race for Attorney General (41-33). SurveyUSA also polled the race, but their numbers are so far afield from the other pollsters that it is hard to resist the temptation to scream "outlier". They have McDonnell up by nineteen points (59-40), and Bolling and Cuccinelli up by double digits as well.
In other Virginia political news, former Governor Doug Wilder seems content to piss off Creigh Deeds. After pointedly withholding an endorsement a few weeks back, he now seems eager to assure Virginia voters that the world won't end with a Republican as Governor. Meanwhile, Deeds got a boost today from an appearance by former President Clinton. He also had one last shot to change the electoral calculus tonight, when the candidates met for their final debate before Election Day. He may well have blown it, however, as he came out against the public option in the debate. The strategy of tacking to the right, which began early in the month when he blamed "the noise in Washington" for his lagging poll numbers, has certainly proved to be a winning strategy in these past few weeks.
LA-Sen: Vitter Leads By 12, Under 50%, In New GOP Poll
A private poll, taken by Southern Media and Opinion Research on behalf of a prominent Republican client (Baton Rouge businessman Lane Grigsby), shows that Republican Senator David Vitter continues to hold a modest lead over Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon as the Democrat seeks to wrest away Vitter's seat in the U.S. Senate. Vitter holds a 48-36 lead, but the poll makes clear that Melancon is still a largely unknown quantity (a 36/23 favorability rating, showing that two-out-of-five voters still do not know him). In other polling results out of the state, Barack Obama holds a 45% approval rating (better than his vote total here), while the two popular politicians in the state continue to be Governor Bobby Jindal (R) and Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu (D), who both check in with 64% approval ratings.
NY-Gov/NY-Sen: Cuomo Only Democratic Bright Spot in new Siena Poll
A new poll out today from Siena College offers some less than savory numbers for Democrats--both incumbent Governor David Paterson and incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand have seen their numbers erode compared to previous Siena polls (PDF File). A record high (for this survey) 72% of those polled want someone other than Paterson to be elected Governor. He gets throttled by Rudy Giuliani (56-33), and only barely beats the unpopular Rick Lazio by two points (39-37). Andrew Cuomo continues to be the best hope for the Democrats, but even his lead over Rudy Giuliani has evaporated down to seven points (50-43). Meanwhile, Gillibrand has her worst month of polling in a while. Still largely undefined (only 54% of voters have a definitive view of her), she has the weakest favorability spread seen yet in a Siena poll (28/26). She loses to Giuliani (an unlikely opponent) by seventeen points, 53-36. In the more likely scenario that she faces former GOP Governor George Pataki, she loses that contest by five points (46-41). In her favor: she is still undefined, thus these results can be explained partially by differences in name recognition.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- For the first time since 2004, the DNC actually bested the RNC in the amount of cash raised during the 3rd quarter of the year. The difference was just over a million dollars, as the DNC raised $24.2 million to a total of $22.9 million for the GOP.
- In yesterday's edition of the Wrap-Up, we noted the 3rd quarter Senate fundraising. In that report, it said that Ohio Democrat (and Secretary of State) Jennifer Brunner, did not submit her totals. Now we might know why--Brunner had a tough quarter, raising just over $
130K 147K and spending more cash than she took in.
- Potentially good news for Democrats: embattled California Republican Congressman Ken Calvert, who narrowly won re-election last year with just 52% of the vote, might be in deep ethical troubles (the kind that federal agents tend to investigate).
- Boy oh boy! This is great news for the Republican that emerges from the primary to take on incumbent Senator Harry Reid: John Ensign is ready and willing to campaign on your behalf.
- Kansas Democrats are still struggling to find a top-tier opponent to take on Senator Sam Brownback as he tries to head home and claim the governorship of the state. The latest to rebuff overtures to make a bid: state chairman Larry Gates.
- Heh--Election 2008 might not be over yet, after all. The Virginia State Board of Elections is debating whether to appeal a federal court ruling demanding that the state count roughly 2000 ballots from overseas that the state had disqualified last year. This is great news for....(nah, can't do it).