On Friday, apparently the campaigns of America celebrated my mother's birthday (Happy Birthday, Mom) by giving me more time to call her...by making absolutely no news whatsoever.
Today, however, was a little bit different. Almost a dozen polls were released today, as well as a heaping helping of campaign news. A veritable buffet plate of political news, so let's get right to it:
NJ-Gov: Suffolk Gives Corzine Big Lead, PPP Teases Otherwise
Anyone looking for definitive tea leaves from the polling data in the tight race for Governor of New Jersey may find it wanting this week. It looked like we had a definitive move this morning, when Suffolk University released a poll with Jon Corzine staked to a nine-point lead (42-33-7) over Republican Chris Christie. This was quite a departure from previous surveys (which have been in a much narrower range, with either candidate typically leading by three or less). So much so, in fact, that another pollster (Patrick Murray at Monmouth University) blogged about what he perceived to be possible errors in the Suffolk poll. Furthermore, Tom Jensen at PPP seems to hint at their blog that Daggett might be hurting Corzine more than Christie at this point, an apparent sign that PPP will show Christie in the lead. If your head is not spinning yet, it probably should. A wild week is apparently in the offing here.
VA-Gov: New WaPo Poll Shows McDonnell Maintains Solid Lead
It is small comfort for Democrats in Virginia, but new numbers out today from the Washington Post show a consistent lead for Republican Bob McDonnell, rather than the widening lead that had been shown in many polls over the last two weeks. WaPo has the GOP nominee staked to an eleven-point edge (55-44) over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Meanwhile, in other campaign news, Tom Jensen tweeted over the weekend that their numbers in Virginia are "about the same as last week." Last week, PPP showed McDonnell leading Deeds by a dozen points (52-40).
NY-23: CfG Poll Claims Hoffman In Front; GOP In 3rd Place
Seeing how this Basswood Research poll was conducted on behalf of the right-wing, Hoffman-lovin' Club For Growth, take this data with as much salt as you feel is appropriate. The CfG is claiming that their candidate, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, has the lead in the special election in NY-23 with 31% of the vote. The CfG poll has Democrat Bill Owens running in second position at 27% of the vote, with Republican DeDe Scozzafava running in a distant third place at 20% of the vote. In other NY-23 news, the marriage between the far-right Club For Growth and the top names in the Republican Party is almost fully consummated. Today, it is so-called "mainstream" Republican Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota, who is forsaking the Republican nominee in order to kowtow to the right-wing. This, of course, the most clear evidence yet that Pawlenty is planning a run for President in 2012.
ELECTION 2009: More 11/3 Polls Released With Just 8 Days To Go
Aside from the two gubernatorial races and the special election to replace Republican John McHugh in NY-23, there are a number of other races with new data over the weekend. A new poll out of the New York Mayoral Election shows that the gazillions of dollars being spent by Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg is apparently paying off: he now leads Democrat Bill Thompson by eighteen points (53-35). Meanwhile, in Maine, a new poll from SMS Research (which has done some work in Maine in the past) shows that 42% of folks Down East support Question 1 (the anti-marriage equality initiative), while 53% are opposed. This is an improvement over last week's numbers by PPP, which had the question deadlocked at 48%. Finally, SurveyUSA polls the Atlanta Mayoral race, and finds city councilwoman Mary Norwood (46%) close to avoiding a runoff in her bid for the mayoralty. State Senator Kasim Reed runs a distant second (26%).
MA-Sen: Coakley Has Solid Lead In New Poll
A new public poll (albeit by an entity--Western New England College--that I have not seen much polling from) gives Democratic state Attorney General a sizeable advantage in both the primary and general elections that will be coming in the next few months to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy. Coakley (37%) has a solid lead in the Democratic primary over businessman Steve Pagliuca (14%) and Congressman Michael Capuano (13%). The general election appears to be close to a formality--Coakley has a twenty-six point lead over Republican state senator Scott Brown. The primary is in December, with the general election in mid-January.
FL-Sen: Pro-Crist Poll Seeks to Counter Recent Polling
After polls in the last week by Rasmussen and the Florida Chamber of Commerce seemed to imply that Republican Governor Charlie Crist was losing his shield of inevitability in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in the Sunshine State, a friendly interest group trotted out a slightly dusty poll (conducted two weeks ago) showing a huge Crist lead and staggeringly high favorability for the Governor. The poll, conducted for the Police Benevolent Association by McLaughlin and Associates, gave Crist a 53-29 lead (roughly ten points wider than the margins in either poll last week). It also gave Crist a stratospheric 67% job approval rating.
MA-Gov: Deval Patrick Unloved, But Leading By Double Digits Anyway
Here is a curious set of data, from the always prolific crew over at Rasmussen Reports. They report in a poll released today that a near-majority (49%) of Massachusetts voters do not want Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick to seek re-election as Governor of the state. That being said, they also find that a split opposition (state treasurer Tim Cahill, a former Democrat, is seeking office as an Independent) is giving Patrick a solid shot at re-election. Against health care executive Charlie Baker, Patrick leads with 34%, with 24% for Baker and 23% for Cahill. Against 2006 candidate Christy Mihos, the margins are almost identical (34-23-23).
MI-Gov: Generic Poll Shows Toss-Up in Big 2010 Gubernatorial Race
Seeing how the fields have yet to shake out (particularly on the Republican side), Rasmussen (as they did in Illinois last week) elects to throw out a generic ballot test for Governor of Michigan. They find the Democrats trailing by a single point (37-36) to the GOP. This is actually better for the Democrats than most of the recent surveys, which have had likely Democratic nominee John Cherry (the state's Lt. Governor) getting thumped by leading GOP cnadidates.
IN OTHER NEWS....