Any way you cut it, Joe Lieberman's filibuster threat doesn't make Harry Reid look good...unless Reid has some secret plan to force Lieberman on board (which nobody seems to think he has).
If I had to bet (and having lived in Las Vegas for almost five years, I've sat down at a poker table or two), I'd bet that Reid announced his strategy before having all 60 votes lined up primarily because he was eager to be seen as a fighter for the the public option -- not because he thought it was the best legislative strategy.
Still, even though Reid doesn't have 60 votes yet, by having decided to put the public option in the bill that will reach the floor, he's put the public option in better shape today than it was at this point last week because to block the public option, Democratic senators must now join a Republican filibuster -- and risk facing severe political blowback as a result.
That brings us back to Joe Lieberman, who is threatening to join a Republican filibuster. In the face of that threat, what's Reid's next move?
One option would be to largely abandon the 60-vote circus by pursuing reconciliation, which would make Lieberman less relevant to the process by enacting those elements of health reform that impact the budget on a 50 vote basis. (Remember, VP Biden's vote breaks a tie, though on non-budgetary issues, Lieberman's vote would still be needed. That would apply to things like barring pre-existing conditions, either by waiving the Byrd rule or invoking cloture on stand-alone legislation.)
Unless Reid can pull reconciliation out of thin air, however, he's going to have to get the 60 votes he needs for a public option, and that will include Joe Lieberman. Unfortunately for Reid, everybody knows how high the stakes are for him, giving wayward senators tremendous leverage.
Even worse, they've got this leverage at what is still an early stage of the final end game. Remember, we're talking about passing a bill out of the Senate to go to House-Senate conference. We're not talking about final passage. And if your concern is what ends up in the final bill, then conference is where the real game is.
Because individual senators have so much leverage, any negotiated deal for 60 votes is likely to be a bad one, even if it preserves the public option (likely in name only).
To see why a deal is likely to be bad, put yourself in the position of a conservative senator for a moment: knowing that you have leverage, wouldn't you insist that the White House and Pelosi sign off on any deal that you make to ensure that your position is held through conference? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.
So if a deal is unlikely to secure passage of anything remotely like a public option, what does Reid do?
My answer is that the public option's best bet remains with a power play, and that means either pursuing reconciliation or calling the the bluffs of senators like Lieberman by coming down hard on them if they don't get in line.
First and foremost, coming down hard on senators like Lieberman means being willing to publicly condemn them as obstructionists if they join a Republican filibuster. Remember, as much leverage as they may have over Reid, he -- and other Democrats -- have leverage over them, by threatening to make them accountable if they choose to obstruct health reform. Even senators like Lieberman don't want that label applied to them. Coming down hard also means stripping them of chairmanships, and in Lieberman's case, being willing to kick him out of the Democratic caucus, which would severely hamper his 2012 re-election hopes.
If Reid isn't prepared to lay down the hammer on wayward senators through reconciliation or recrimination, he'd better have some other sort of trick up his sleeve, because if he doesn't, they are going to lay the hammer down on the public option -- and him with it.
But if Reid is ready and willing to wage the fight of his life, he can win this battle -- and the Joe Liebermans of the world won't know what hit them.