Dean has lost his underlying argument... that with the Dean factor in the race, there will be more excitement and more voters at the polls. And, if there are 100,000 Iowans at the Caucus, Bush can sit comfortably in his Barcolounger.
Of course, if 500,000 Iowans show up, Dean wins his underlying argument, and Bush should be sweating.
Dean has already defined the race. It's his to win or lose... or, more properly, it is up to the Dean supporters to win or lose. The more persuasive they are, the more people they can get to their cause, the more likely that HoHo will be our president next year.