These are the 2 most critical problems facing the world today. They have the potential to not only change civilization, but to end it. 30 years from now, your children won't be thinking about the health care bill of 2009, or even the tea-bagger uprising, they'll be cursing us for not taking the action to prevent the global catastrophe that was so clearly coming.
These 2 problems are intricately intertwined and solving them will be very difficult since their effects on our civilization will be indirect. The economy is acting like the proverbial canary in the coal mine and is already reflecting the impacts of these enormous problems. Any economic policy this administration implements without addressing Peak Cheap Oil and Global Warming is a policy that history will view as contributing to a failed presidency and a global disaster.
As best I can tell, the term "Peak Cheap Oil" was coined by Eric Janszen at iTulip.com. Here is an in depth commentary on where we stand currently in this looming crises.
Peak Cheap Oil
To summarize the Peak Cheap Oil problem;
We are now approaching, or may have already reached, the point where Oil production has plateaued and will soon start to decrease. Ask yourself, how can oil be at historically high prices of $75+/brl in the midst of what is an economic depression? Oil is the life blood of our economy, we are the biggest users of oil, and the world is running out.
Oil production in the U.S., and world new oil discoveries, both peaked in the 1960's. The problem was recognized by the Carter administration and specified in his global 2000 report, and was ignored and made enormously worse by the Reagan administration when he gave control of our energy future to the oil companies. 30 years of neglecting the problem now threatens our country's future.
Almost everything in our economy depends on oil; Industrial production, Agriculture, Transportation... And not just oil, but cheap oil. Because we have built an economy so dependent on cheap oil, any increase in the price causes severe turmoil with businesses closing, unemployment rising, reduced benefits, a drop in government revenues while increasing government spending, and a shift in consumer spending priorities.
And then there's Global Warming. Most people think of rising oceans when they think of Global Warming. They go to the beach every summer and the beach looks pretty much the same as it did last summer, so what's the problem? The impacts of Global Warming will be far more subtle and will once again show up as an economic problem rather than a Global Warming problem.
Increased major Hurricanes are very costly and drain very limited government resources. But you don't even take notice of the droughts, the increased insect infestations that destroy pine forests and food crops, the increased energy costs from last summers extra long heat spell... As time goes by, the extra costs of growing food in drier, and wetter, conditions along with the additional costs of fighting non native weeds and insects will not be enough to prevent a decrease in crop and animal output. The rapidly rising costs of food will increase hunger around the world and will be another financial burden on Americans.
When the tea-baggers and the Global Warming deniers are finally shown to be the crazies they are, and many of the economic problems we see are linked to Global Warming, it will be too late and the direct impacts will be just starting.
The good news is that both Peak Cheap Oil and Global Warming can be addressed with the same solution. The need to to transition us and the world from a fossil fueled economy to a renewable energy economy. Once we sincerely start the process, the economic gains will be so great, it will be impossible to turn back.
The President missed a golden opportunity to start the transition with Stimulus I. Instead he bowed to the representatives of the Finance economy (Geithner/Summers) and gave us stimulus that was not only ineffective, in many cases it was counterproductive.
Creating jobs by building new highways is exactly the wrong stimulus we need. This is counterproductive to solving both Peak Cheap Oil and Global Warming. The transportation system of the 21st century must be powered by electricity, and to a lesser extent, biofuels. To get there, our biggest bang for the buck will be in mass transit (including buses), and we must provide the research and financial incentives to move personal transportation from fuel efficient diesel->hybrid diesel->pluggable hybrids->all electric.
There will not be a Stimulus III, so the President must get Stimulus II right. The politics cries jobs, jobs, jobs, and the critical problems of our nation cry green jobs, green jobs, green jobs.
We can stimulate the green economy by doing several things;
- Declare that all government buildings, Federal, State, and local, will be converted to green buildings. Solar, wind, energy conservation and usage efficiency... All new government vehicles will be required to exceed cafe standards and must be hybrid or pluggable hybrids when available.
- The work will be done with a direct government employed jobs corp, along with private contractors when needed.
- Manufacturers in the U.S will be given preference.
- Massive increase in research dollars for battery and other storage, new alternative sources, and efficiency improvements.
Once the private sector realizes the government is fully committed to making the transition to green energy, there will be a mad rush to jump on the train before it leaves the station. The new jobs, along with the rapidly improving economy will be good for the country, good for the planet, and will assure Progressive victories in 2010 and firmly place this president's place in history.