Short and sweet....
We who support Dean should continue to support him and try to boost his chances in ether-ville and in our own local venues.
But we also need to think strategically, long term, and realistically...
In my opinion, Dean still stands a good chance of securing the Democratic nomination - that is based on my inherent optimism, and based on the fact that he has more cash, a larger organization (is it better? I dunno, but it is bigger and wider spread), and now has managed to judo "the speech" into widespread free media, and the presentation of "The New, Human, Funny, Self-deprecating Dean".
HOWEVER....
Dean could still lose to Kerry, Edwards, or Clark (pretty much in that order of likelihood at the moment.
IF Dean loses the nomination, or IF it becomes clear that he has no chance, there are two basic options being thrown around on the various sites (Here, DU, Counterspin, Atrios, etc)....
- Soldier on, fight the nomination tooth and nail, continue campaigning, a la Jerry Brown in 1992. Petey, an Edwards booster here on Kos, accuses Trippi of intending to do that, and trying to sabotage the Dems, and trying to weaken the DNC. Other Dean supporters of the more...dedicated...type also seem to be proponents of that tactic, in hopes that Dean will pull it off at a brokered convention or via superdelegates.
- Run third party using disaffected Dems, Greens, Progressives, and etc as a base - this is the idea most commonly put forward by serious Dean-haters in an attempt to pre-emptively (and I mean that in the worst sense and use the term with reference to Bush et al) strip worried Dems and ABB-ers away from Dean and toward their own candidate. I do not think Dean would ever do this, not in a million years.
There is a third option, and one that I would like you all to think over and chew on, and if you have any inside contacts in the Dean Campaign, perhaps you might suggest it to them if you think it worthy...and then you can get me a fat political consulting job... pleeeze?
Here's my pitch:
Dean should soldier on through at least Mid February - fight for the nomination in NH, SC, and etc...
If, by mid-february, Dean is not gaining any traction, attracting more support, or showing real strength where it matters, the campaign should pack it in, endorse, or not endorse as they see fit, and....
roll the campaign over into a 527-style political action group.
Use the remaining money (which could be still a quite hefty sum) to begin crafting issue ads, attacking Bush, building broad Democratic organizations, and generally building the base a la Soros and the new PAC/thinktank he put together
and funded.
This activity could be coordinated with MoveOn, or not.
It could be focused on the media (as that is specifically where Dems are and will continue to lose), or not.
And, it could wind up getting Dean, and the organization he and Trippi have helped coax into existence, a powerful seat at the table, whether that is VP, DNC chair, Cabinet, or whatever.
The MOST important thing, after getting Bush canned, is building on and growing, and expanding, as rapidly and as strongly as possible, the organization that has been built:
I am talking about the fund-raising, information gathering and dissemination, media "defense" squads, grass-roots activist circles, communications pathways, media outreach, posters, political talk, and etc.
That's my pitch...whaddya think?