Today's
North County Times has an interesting article on the special election that just ended. There are two significant pieces of news.
The first is, regretably, that Roach has conceded to Bilbray. There won't be a recount to keep the GOP candidates actively posturing and potty-mouthing each other. On the other hand, it's still true that there will be a GOP primary election for the November election, held at the same time (June 6th) as the special election run-off for the remainder of the term that was Cunningham's. And Roach is still seriously considering running in that primary. Bilbray will have competition there, so there will still be crossfire from his own party even as he campaigns against Busby--and hopefully, this will keep the chasms open between the various GOP factions. (I mean... imagine the campaigning from peopel who've already hurled mud... "Vote for me, because you wouldn't want that slimeball to represent you--but vote for him anyway, because you don't want Busby." It just lacks a certain punch...).
And then there's the breakdown of the voting in the various parts of the 50th. Which is quite interesting...
The Republicanism of the district got talked about a lot during the last couple months, rooted in the right-wing tilt of the region, and the gerrymandering of the district (for example, the community of La Jolla is in the district, but not all of it. A chunk of the coast north of the community is not included (it's always been a rather funky area), and none of the actaul coastal strip is (Democrats being more likely to be beach dwellers?), nor is the southern part of La Jolla that a friend of mine (a resident of the area) refers to as "Baja La Jolla").
What's interesting is that Busby did very well in the coastal communities and cities. Those parts of San Diego in the 50th voted for her, giving her 47%--despite the fact that La Jolla is a rather wealthy community, and despite the fact that Mira Mesa is the community adjacent to MCAS Miramar, and thus home to many Marine families (not that Mira Mesa is coastal, but... that only highlights things, as you'll see). Busby averaged 54.8% of the vote in the coastal communities. Del Mar gave her 53%, and Del Mar Heights 54%; Solana Beach 52%, and Encinitas 60%! Carlsbad is the only coastal city where her support dropped below 50%, at 44% (in fact, almost exactly at the district average).
Carlsbad's the northmost of the coastal cities, influenced perhaps by that fact--proximity to Camp Pendleton and the traditionally rather right wing politics of North County. San Marcos, just inland of Carlsbad, gave Busby a very similar 42%. And inland, Rancho Bernardo and Rancho Penasquistos gave her 43% and 44%, repsectively. Not great, but again, at the distcit average, pretty much.
So where'd Busby's numbers get pulled down?
Really, in two areas, very distinct from each other and quite unalike. The one is Escondido, the northmost inland city in the district. It's long been seen as very conservative (real wingnut territory), and it only gave Busby 36% (still, a plurality...). The other community is Rancho Santa Fe, home to the disgraced Cunningham and the most wealthy community in the country. This is the only place where Busby was edged by anyone; Roach (who, remember, lost to Bilbray among the GOP candidates, overall) getting 24.04% to Francine's 24.02%.
As one voting consultant quoted in the article said;
"As a rule, Republican coastal residents are more moderate than inland Republicans...."
"Coastal residents tend to be more concerned about environmental issues and tend to be more affluent... (and) more moderate on social issues and conservative on financial issues."
I find that interesting. There's a divide there--which conveniently ignores the fabulously wealthy, non-coastal community of Rancho Santa Fe--between the coastal, moderate GOP (affluent, concerned about social issues and inclined to fiscal responsibility) and the inland GOP, which by contrast has to be more of a fundamentalist strain, happy with borrow and squander and environmental rape.
I'm not sure what this protends, but I'd suggest that Busby's campaign will do well to focus on maintaining her coastal support and focusing on attraction of the populations in three areas: the northern coastal city of Carlsbad and its neighbor San Marcos, the inland communities of Rancho Bernardo and Rancho Penasquitos (which have some cultural traits and interests in common, I think, with places like Carlsbad...) and the San Diego communities in the district. Escondido is going to be a hard-sell... and Rancho Santa Fe is, by and large, a lost cause.
The best gifts the campaign might get would be continued infighting amongst the GOP candidates seeking the November slot, and the continuing of the financial scandal around County Commissioner Horn (whose district overlaps much of the 50th), since that will keep the fiscal irresponsibility and outright criminality fo the current GOP centerstage. Fortuantely, both those seem likely.
Moderate views, a dedication to honest government, and a commitment to fiscal responsibility (and sanity), will be strong draws.
Hopefully, the continuing incompetence of the Bush regime and the fumbling ineptitude and criminality of the GOP Congress will continue to leave a nasty taste in voters' mouths.