You'll get a start on the weekend (and any procrastinators will get a jump on the last-minute shopping), because this edition of the ole Wrap is a bit thin. Rasmussen stays prolific (and stays true to form, by and large), and a couple of campaign stories (including another Dem incumbent drawing legit opposition) grace this weekend edition of the Wrap....
MI-Gov: Wingnuttiest GOP Candidate Also Toughest, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen has been spending most of the fall developing a reputation for being both incredibly prolific, and incredibly friendly to GOP candidates. Another tendency they have developed is to presume that the candidate furthest to the right is the most electable. They have adopted that meme for the Florida Senate race (see below), and they have now done it in Michigan. Despite the contention from every other pollster that state Attorney General Mike Cox has the biggest lead over likely Democratic nominee John Cherry (the state Lt. Governor), Rasmussen actually claims that Cox is the most vulnerable GOP candidate (leading Cherry 39-34). Their strongest candidate? Right-wing Congressman Peter Hoekstra, which Ras claims has a double digit lead (46-32) in their poll.
FL-Sen: Speaking of Stronger Right-Wing Candidates and Rasmussen
Carrying on the same narrative, Rasmussen is also the only pollster to date that alleges that right-wing insurgent candidate Marco Rubio is actually stronger than Governor Charlie Crist in a matchup with presumptive Democratic Senate nominee Kendrick Meek. Rasmussen claims that Rubio has a fourteen point lead (49-35) over Meek, while Crist only leads Rubio by six points (42-36). This one, to be fair, strains credulity a little bit. By way of contrast, when Daily Kos contracted independent pollsters Research 2000 to look at this race last month, they had Crist up seventeen on Meek, while Rubio trailed narrowly.
GA-Gov: Ras Sees Favorites As The...Well...Favorites in Primary
Rasmussen also heads to the Peach State this week, and they actually concur with every other pollster on the primary elections for Governor in Georgia next year, showing Roy Barnes and John Oxendine with solid leads. On the Democratic side, Barnes has a giant lead, with a thirty-one (48-17) point lead over state Attorney General Thurbert Baker. Meanwhile, over on the GOP side, Oxendine (with 28%) still maintains a two-to-one lead over both GA Secretary of State Karen Handel (14%) and Congressman Nathan Deal (13%).
IN OTHER NEWS....
- Bored over the weekend? Find exquisite political commentary, to say nothing of football commentary, from yours truly over at Twitter.
- TX-Gov: Today was not the best media day for Texas Governor Rick Perry. It started off this morning, when the Dallas Morning News fired off a story which explains the rift between Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Perry, which culminated in their currently active (and somewhat ugly) gubernatorial primary. It seems that Perry promised KBH in 2006 that he would not run for re-election in 2010, as a way of keeping KBH from primarying him in 2006:
John Nau, a Houston beer distributor who has backed Perry in the past but is now finance chairman for Hutchison's campaign, said the governor told him and others that if Hutchison wouldn't challenge his re-election in 2006, he would get out of her way in 2010.
The news for Perry got a little worse this afternoon, with a rather surprising prediction from the crew at Newsweek Magazine. In their year-end edition, they make ten political predictions for 2010. Prediction #10? That Democrat Bill White wins the Texas gubernatorial election in November (but "just barely").
- NY-Gov: Awk-ward! The New York Post is reporting that Governor David Paterson crashed the birthday party of possible Democratic primary opponent Andrew Cuomo. One observer described the interaction between the two as "like seeing your old girlfriend at the prom."
- OH-15/PA-15: You gotta love them teabaggers! Two competitive House races are going to see Republican frontrunners bludgeoned for insufficient conservatism by far-right insurgent opponents. In the Columbus-based 15th District, likely GOP frontrunner Steve Stivers (who nearly defeated Democratic Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy last year) is going to get primaried from the right by John Adams, who is billing himself as the "conservative alternative". Meanwhile, in the Keystone State, third-term incumbent Charlie Dent is also getting teabagged, in his case by Mathew Benol. Benol was one of the leaders in the Lehigh Valley Tea Party movement before resigning his post to gear up for a Congressional bid (he also bears a slight resemblance to NBC political director Chuck Todd, as you will see if you click the link). Worse news for Dent? Another teabagger, Jake Towne, is already planning an independent challenge, meaning that he will be on the ballot with Dent and likely Democratic nominee John Callahan in the November general election.
- Race For Congress: This is not exactly happy news, after that ray of sunshine from Newsweek. The Cook Report has updated their 2010 projections, and they are not exactly rosy:
House: GOP Gains of 20 to 30 Seats
Senate: GOP Gains of 0 to 3 Seats
Governor: GOP Gains of 0 to 3 Seats
Cook has been especially bearish of Democratic fortunes in 2010 as of late, with four times as many Democrats as Republicans on his Competitive Race list for the House of Representatives.