From political observer extraordinaire, Stuart Rothenberg in the subscription-only Roll Call.
In recent years, I've paid less attention to "generic ballot" numbers than I once did, in part because Democrats have held large leads in the national generic ballot only to see setbacks during the 2002 and 2004 elections. However, I can't ignore what some campaign operatives describe as a noticeable drop recently in the GOP's generic ballot strength in states across the country [...]
The "generic" numbers are meant to test fundamental partisan strength in Congressional districts and states, providing a more up-to-date measure than voter registration numbers (which often lag behind real voting patterns by years) or true ballot tests (which can be distorted by the names of candidates being tested, including the normal advantages of incumbency).
Most, though not all, GOP insiders agree that something has been going on, though they don't always agree about the magnitude of the slide. Republican operatives seem particularly concerned about generic ballots and the "right direction/wrong track" question, which measures general sentiment and reflects public opinion about the performance of officeholders.
Some call the movement "very significant," placing the generic ballot drops from a couple of points to as many as 10 points (which is a huge shift by these standards). Others are less alarmed, calling the new data "a slight slippage" that has appeared in a number of different survey questions.
"The political environment is pretty soft right now, and it is having an impact on Republican candidates. We are playing through a slump right now," one Republican strategist told me recently [...]
But while poor "right direction/wrong track" numbers could be a bad omen for all sitting officeholders regardless of party, not all parties would likely suffer equally. Remember, in 1994, at the height of anti-incumbent, anti-Washington sentiment, only one party took the brunt of the public's anger - the Democrats, who controlled the White House and both houses of Congress.
"This is not a good environment for us to run in," one Republican told me flatly. I have found no veteran GOP strategists or operatives who flatly disagree.
Rothenberg admits the obvious -- that it's early and there's plenty of time for the generic ballot numbers to turn around. However, he notes this GOP slump could allow the DCCC to recruit better candidates and improve its fundraising. The weaker the GOP looks, the more top-tier candidates will be willing to take them on.