After a brief break from posting (I had a great deal of un-political work to do), I'm back to what I love best. Today, we'll cover an area of the country that could potentially reap gains for both the Democrats and the Republicans. That region is the
South, consisting of Kentucky and Oklahoma plus the 11 states of the old Confederacy. There are a bunch of races worth examining, so let's get on with it:
Kentucky: Kentucky will have three highly contested House races in 2004. The special election in KY-6 is coming up in two weeks, and we've got a perennial vulnerable incumbent plus a Republican-leaning open seat. In
KY-3, Congresswoman
Ann Northup continues to win by any means necessary, and she may be the luckiest politician in the House today. In 1996, she edged out Congressman Mike Ward by a hair, narrowly survived Chris Gorman in 1998, beat a weakened Eleanor Jordan in 2000, and squeaked by Jack Conway in 2002. In 2004, the Democratic nominee will be
Tony Miller, the popular Jefferson County Circuit Court Judge. Miller entered the race after Conway decided not to seek a rematch. He doesn't have a website yet, but Miller is a strong candidate with deep name recognition in Jefferson County (which is most of the district). Miller, who ran in 2003 for Lt. Governor with Jody Richards and narrowly lost to the Chandler-Owen ticket in the primary, will be a strong candidate. If the Democratic nominee can win the district by a decent margin, I think this is the year that Northup loses.
In KY-4, Ken Lucas, considered by many of us to be a DINO, is retiring. However, his seat was won by Bush in 2000 in a landslide, so it will be very tough to hold. In fact, I consider this seat, apart from Texas, to be the GOP's best shot at a takeover in the House. Nonetheless, Nick Clooney, father of George and a beloved TV personality in the Ohio-Kentucky area, will be the Democratic nominee. No word on whether George Clooney will campaign for his dad, but Clooney the candidate is quite strong himself. The GOP will have a primary between Geoff Davis, the 2002 nominee, Kevin Murphy, an attorney, and John King, a chiropractor. Davis is the strongest GOP candidate.
Since we've already covered KY-6 at this site repeatedly, let's move on now to Virginia. With the seats there gerrymandered for the GOP in 2001, there's only one competitive race here in 2004. That's VA-5, where Republican/turncoat Virgil Goode is facing a tough fight from Al Weed. Al Who? Well, Al Weed is a rural preservation activist, a moderate Democrat from the non-Charlottesville area of the district (Charlottesville is liberal, and the rest of the district is a rural, conservative area). Why is that important? Weed has great popularity in the rural portions of the district, and is also a winegrowing pioneer. For example, read this excerpt from his biography at http://www.alweed2004.com:
"When Al and Emily bought the farm that today is Mountain Cove Vineyards, there were no grapes on the property, and in fact, there was no wine industry in Virginia. Virginia lacked the infrastructure to support or encourage new wineries. Al led efforts to create the laws that have made Virginia's wine industry the most copied in America. He understood the links between industry production, tourism, and retail marketing and sales. Al wrote the law to establish Virginia's Winegrowers Advisory Board."
Pretty impressive, no? Take that information plus his amazing record as a US Soldier (he won the Bronze Star in Vietnam and recently retired from a 42-year career in the US Armed Forces), and you can tell that he's a wonderful candidate to challenge Virgil Goode.
Let's move on to North Carolina, where there will be several competitive races in 2004. In NC-5, Richard Burr is running for the US Senate (go to http://www.erskinebowles2004.com to help out), and the Democrats have a strong candidate in Surry County Commissioner Jim Harell, Jr. (http://www.jimharrell.com). Commissioner Harrell is a leader in the American Dental Association, where he chairs the committee on Government Affairs. This seat is very much Republican, but don't be suprised if Harrell makes this race worth watching.
There's also NC-8, where Robin Hayes is likely to win reelection since the Democrats have yet to get a challenger in the race. Three Democrats are considering bids-Attorneys Billy Richardson and Bill Alexander and Businessman Wayne Troutman. One of them will likely run for the seat, but with the late start in fundraising, I think Hayes will win with about 53-55%. The only way Hayes loses is if Tarheel Country gets furious about job losses, and takes it out on Hayes, a free-trader. In NC-11, Charles Taylor represents a GOP-leaning district, but has not won recently with more than 55%. After being hurt by a banking scandal, he will face Patsy Keever, a Buncombe County Commissioner and a strong candidate in her own right (http://www.keeverforcongress.com). I truly think that this race will be close.
Nothing exciting, believe it or not, in either South Carolina or Tennessee, so it's on to Florida. Due to Karen Thurman's decision not to run again in 2004 against Congresswoman Ginny Brown-Waite, we will likely lose this seat (FL-5) for the next decade. Brown-Waite beat Thurman (1993-2003 in Congress) by a 48-46 margin after Thurman's district was redrawn. All other seats are pretty safe for each party, after Mark Foley left the Senate race to run for reelection.
In Georgia, Democrats are gunning for GA-11 and GA-12, and the GOP is gunning for GA-3. Once reason why Democrats may support State Senator Nadine Thomas for the US Senate race is while she won't win (who can at this point?), she'd boost African-American turnout so much that it would knock off Phil Gingrey in GA-11 and Max Burns in GA-12. In GA-11, Gingrey will likely face Rick Crawford, the Polk County Chief Magistrate (http://www.rickcrawford.org), who will put up a good fight if he can raise the funds. In GA-12, Burns is likely out in 2004, his district being heavily Democratic. Four Dems are running against him, the frontrunner being John Barrow, who's raised more cash so far than Burns! The field would be cleared if State Labor Commissioner Mike Thurmond (also an African-American) decides to run for this seat, but that would be overkill to beat Burns. Both races will be good to enjoy.
In Alabama, it appears likely that Mike Rogers (Al-3) will be reelected in 2004. So far, no Democrat has entered the race, though two are considering a bid. Carl Cole, a 29-year old attorney is challenging Robert Aderholt (AL-4)in 2004, but the time to beat Aderholt was years ago.
I'm going to stop here for today and continue on to the rest of the South (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississipi) tommorow.